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  • 6-away/3-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 13 09:50:38 2023
    XGID=-b-aAADBBaA-cB---b-b-b-bB-:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X O X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 165 X-O: 1-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 14 18:24:41 2023
    On 8/13/2023 9:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b-aAADBBaA-cB---b-b-b-bB-:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O     O     O  X |
     | X           O    |   | O     O     O  X |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X  X |   | X              O |
     | O     X  O  X  X |   | X  X  X  O     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 147  O: 165 X-O: 1-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    At 6a3a the leader has a normal takepoint if gammons are ignored, but
    it's elevated to about 31% if gammons are in the "normal" range.

    I doubt I'd even think about cubing this one as X OTB, and it doesn't
    seem like the take decision is a difficult one. I"m trying to see where
    the score makes a difference here and I'm failing.

    So, ND/T.



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 15 07:59:58 2023
    XGID=-b-aAADBBaA-cB---b-b-b-bB-:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X O X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 165 X-O: 1-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This position is much more gammonish than I thought OTB. XG says
    that it's a must-double.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 63.37% (G:24.79% B:2.03%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.63% (G:11.53% B:1.41%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 63.56% (G:25.30% B:1.71%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.44% (G:12.00% B:2.65%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.753 (-0.159)
    Double/Take: +0.913
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.087)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.738..+0.769)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.894..+0.932)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)