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  • 5-away/3-away recube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 12 08:39:27 2023
    XGID=-BCD-CB----b-----bbcdAb---:1:1:1:00:2:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 68 O: 102 X-O: 2-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 14 08:01:39 2023
    XGID=-BCD-CB----b-----bbcdAb---:1:1:1:00:2:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 68 O: 102 X-O: 2-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    For money, this is far from a redouble, since X is barely a favorite.
    However, ATS, XG says this is a must-double. The threat is simply to
    disengage and transition to a pure race.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 53.05% (G:2.78% B:0.08%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 46.95% (G:2.56% B:0.08%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 53.23% (G:2.86% B:0.10%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 46.77% (G:2.36% B:0.04%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.191 (-0.263)
    Redouble/Take: +0.455
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.545)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.187..+0.196)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+0.449..+0.460)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 14 18:18:10 2023
    On 8/12/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BCD-CB----b-----bbcdAb---:1:1:1:00:2:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  O |   | O  O  X  O       |
     |             O  O |   | O  O     O       |
     |                  |   | O  O             |
     |                  |   |    O             |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |          X       |
     |                  |   |    X     X  X    | +---+
     |    O             |   | X  X     X  X  X | | 2 |
     |    O             |   | X  X     X  X  X | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 68  O: 102 X-O: 2-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    IIRC, at 5a3a the leader's takepoint is elevated - about 33% if you
    ignore gammons or about 39% if there are the "usual" amount of gammons.

    This position doesn't look very gammonish for O (and if X recubes gammon
    losses won't matter) so I'll go with about a 34% takepoint for O.

    Looks like she has that here - the 16 rolls that don't escape seem to
    give O the edge, but if X leaps the four prime and isn't hit he loses
    the market by a mile. So ship it.

    R/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Tue Aug 15 07:55:56 2023
    On 8/14/2023 6:18 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 8/12/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BCD-CB----b-----bbcdAb---:1:1:1:00:2:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
      +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
      |             O  O |   | O  O  X  O       |
      |             O  O |   | O  O     O       |
      |                  |   | O  O             |
      |                  |   |    O             |
      |                  |   |                  |
      |                  |BAR|                  |
      |                  |   |                  |
      |                  |   |          X       |
      |                  |   |    X     X  X    | +---+
      |    O             |   | X  X     X  X  X | | 2 |
      |    O             |   | X  X     X  X  X | +---+
      +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 68  O: 102 X-O: 2-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    IIRC, at 5a3a the leader's takepoint is elevated - about 33% if you
    ignore gammons or about 39% if there are the "usual" amount of gammons.

    Maybe you're thinking about a centered cube rather than a recube?
    Or the takepoint of the 5a player rather than the 3a player?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 15 07:57:49 2023
    On 8/15/2023 7:55 AM, I wrote:
    On 8/14/2023 6:18 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    IIRC, at 5a3a the leader's takepoint is elevated - about 33% if you
    ignore gammons or about 39% if there are the "usual" amount of gammons.

    Maybe you're thinking about a centered cube rather than a recube?
    Or the takepoint of the 5a player rather than the 3a player?

    Sorry, ignore that...I misread what you wrote.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)