1. Forum
  2. Usenet
  3. REC.GAMES.BACKGAMMON

  • Hit, of course 4 (7-away/4-away)

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 10 08:57:23 2023
    XGID=-BBBAABa-----B-aa--ccbbbC-:1:1:1:62:0:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 12 08:38:36 2023
    XGID=-BBBAABa-----B-aa--ccbbbC-:1:1:1:62:0:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62

    For money, XG says that the win/gammon tradeoff makes it a close call
    between 24/16* and 13/7*/5. But ATS, XG says it's not close, partly
    because after 24/16*, dance, XG says it's a massive recube.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:-0.412
    Player: 29.54% (G:10.87% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 70.46% (G:40.44% B:23.86%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.424..-0.401) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/5 eq:-0.580 (-0.168)
    Player: 25.36% (G:9.06% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 74.64% (G:33.35% B:14.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.588..-0.573) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------------------
    After 24/16*, dance
    -------------------

    XGID=aBBBAABa-----B-aA--ccbbbB-:1:1:1:00:0:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 123 O: 104 X-O: 0-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 44.86% (G:22.91% B:1.14%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 55.14% (G:25.71% B:11.00%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 45.66% (G:23.87% B:1.54%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 54.34% (G:27.14% B:12.26%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.315 (-0.236)
    Redouble/Take: +0.551
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.449)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.308..+0.323)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.539..+0.564)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-BBBAABa-----B-aa--ccbbbC-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:-0.700
    Player: 28.99% (G:10.06% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 71.01% (G:41.69% B:7.89%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.710..-0.690) - [94.1%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/5 eq:-0.710 (-0.010)
    Player: 25.38% (G:8.64% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 74.62% (G:34.36% B:4.61%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.717..-0.703) - [5.9%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 14 17:56:10 2023
    On 8/10/2023 8:57 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BBBAABa-----B-aa--ccbbbC-:1:1:1:62:0:3:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O  O       |   | O  O  O  O  O  X |
     | X                |   | O  O  O  O  O  X |
     |                  |   | O  O           X |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  | +---+
     |                  |   | X        X  X  X | | 2 |
     |                O |   | X  X  X  X  X  X | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 131  O: 88 X-O: 0-3/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62


    Sixes don't grow on trees, but exposing a double shot from the bar with
    24/16* against that board seems too rich. I'm not sure if the score
    matters, but I'll hit and make the five point to put her on the bar
    against a five point board. And hope to roll a couple of sixes before
    it's too late.

    13/7*/5.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)