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  • Hit, of course 3

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 9 08:49:32 2023
    XGID=-b-a-aE-D---cD---bAea--A--:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 155 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 11 08:11:03 2023
    XGID=-b-a-aE-D---cD---bAea--A--:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 155 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    The blot in the opponent's home board is a juicier target, but 23/20*
    hits only once while 6/5*/3* hits twice, and both of those blots are
    on points where O would like to anchor.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/5* 5/3* eq:+0.377
    Player: 57.48% (G:21.67% B:2.22%)
    Opponent: 42.52% (G:11.26% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.358..+0.397) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/20* eq:+0.288 (-0.089)
    Player: 55.52% (G:18.64% B:1.28%)
    Opponent: 44.48% (G:10.67% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.272..+0.304) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 14 17:49:26 2023
    On 8/9/2023 8:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b-a-aE-D---cD---bAea--A--:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  X |   | O  O        X    |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X              O |
     | O           X    |   | X  O     O     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 155  O: 180 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21



    X us way ahead in the race, so hitting in his homeboard is probably anti-positional, even if he hits two. OTOH, X doesn't want O to make a
    second anchor, so 6/5*/3* might be the right idea.

    But I'll make the prosaic play of 23/20*. More to get the runners
    moving while she's occupied getting off the bar than to send a fifth
    checker back.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Sep 24 15:34:56 2023
    On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 8:11:06 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b-a-aE-D---cD---bAea--A--:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 155 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21
    The blot in the opponent's home board is a juicier target, but 23/20*
    hits only once while 6/5*/3* hits twice, and both of those blots are
    on points where O would like to anchor.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/5* 5/3* eq:+0.377
    Player: 57.48% (G:21.67% B:2.22%)
    Opponent: 42.52% (G:11.26% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.358..+0.397) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/20* eq:+0.288 (-0.089)
    Player: 55.52% (G:18.64% B:1.28%)
    Opponent: 44.48% (G:10.67% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.272..+0.304) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    And also we can always hit the blot on the 20pt later since the opponent has two on the bar and nearly no matter what he does won't have a real chance to cover it for multiple turns.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)