XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE-a-abd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/1/2023 8:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE-a-abd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     O     O  O |   | O     O  O     X |
 | X              O |   | O     O  O     X |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X  X             |
 |                  |   | X  X             |
 | O              X |   | X  X     O  O  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 154  O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

The runners are immobilized, and behind this far in the race it's
probably wrong to run them.

So, the choice seems to be between making the four point, making the 7
and 10 points, or pointing on her head on the three point.


I'll make the 7 and 10 points. Unstacking is always good, and making two
points is usually better than making one, and making the ace point can
turn out to be a liability.

Not at all sure, but 13/7 13/10(2).

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE-a-abd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

This is a rather dramatic example of a tempo hit. O has threats to
extend her prime, and also has outfield blots (particularly the one
on X's 12pt) that are vulnerable to being hit. XG goes all out with
the double hit 7/1 6/3* 5/2*.

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 6/3* 5/2* eq:-0.381
Player: 40.50% (G:18.32% B:2.48%)
Opponent: 59.50% (G:28.04% B:3.63%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.400..-0.362) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 7/1 6/3* eq:-0.541 (-0.161)
Player: 37.10% (G:14.36% B:1.42%)
Opponent: 62.90% (G:26.65% B:2.99%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.559..-0.524) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 7/1 5/2* eq:-0.551 (-0.170)
Player: 36.34% (G:13.85% B:1.30%)
Opponent: 63.66% (G:25.17% B:2.46%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.562..-0.539) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/4 7/4 eq:-0.564 (-0.183)
Player: 35.64% (G:11.48% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 64.36% (G:22.55% B:1.94%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.579..-0.550) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 13/7 eq:-0.629 (-0.248)
Player: 34.35% (G:10.56% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 65.65% (G:22.27% B:1.89%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.646..-0.612) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE--a-cd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 6/3* 5/2* eq:-0.538
Player: 37.57% (G:15.04% B:1.31%)
Opponent: 62.43% (G:29.24% B:4.00%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.527) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 7/4 eq:-0.583 (-0.044)
Player: 34.78% (G:11.60% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 65.22% (G:22.55% B:1.96%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.594..-0.572) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 13/10(2) 13/7 eq:-0.638 (-0.099)
Player: 34.18% (G:10.80% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 65.82% (G:22.21% B:1.91%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.656..-0.619) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)