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  • Even more dire straits

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 30 08:02:47 2023
    XGID=-aB-BaCB-----B----bbbcbbD-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Jul 30 15:08:39 2023
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-aB-BaCB-----B----bbbcbbD-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow


    I'm playing to avoid gammon so I need to move my available checkers
    closer to the home board. Let's just go with 13/7.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 1 08:46:37 2023
    XGID=-aB-BaCB-----B----bbbcbbD-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 166 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 51

    X is six-primed and he is probably going to die a slow death,
    crunching his board while O casually brings her back checkers
    around the board. His best chance is to act now to try to
    force O to break her six-prime. By hitting with 13/8 6/5*,
    he forces O to crack immediately with 33 or 11, and a few
    other entering rolls fail to escape and might crack next
    time. Leaving those blots might seem to risk losing more
    gammons, but the thing is that X is already at high risk of
    losing a gammon and so isn't risking that much more.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5* eq:-1.174
    Player: 20.46% (G:2.84% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 79.54% (G:55.97% B:13.97%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-1.185..-1.163) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-1.274 (-0.100)
    Player: 13.42% (G:1.06% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 86.58% (G:53.59% B:7.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-1.281..-1.266) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)