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  • 2-away/6-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jul 20 08:12:51 2023
    XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:5:1:0:7:10

    Score is X:5 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X X X | | X X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 156 X-O: 5-1/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Jul 20 11:04:51 2023
    On 7/20/2023 8:12 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:5:1:0:7:10

    Score is X:5 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |    O  X     O  O |   | O     O  O       |
     |       X     O    |   | O     O          |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   |                  |
     | O     X     X  X |   | X  X  X  O       |
     | O     X     X  X |   | X  X  X  O  O    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 118  O: 156 X-O: 5-1/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    At 6a 2a, the trailer has a lower takepoint than usual, but not that
    much lower at around 18%.

    For money play, holding the three point when your opponent has escaped
    their checkers is a take up to about a 30 pip deficit. But X still has a
    bit of work to do to bring the checkers on the 15 around. That combined
    with the lowered takepoint makes me think it's a take.

    I seem to recall that 2a many-a has a very narrow doubling window, and
    since it's not clearly a pass it's probably not in the window yet.


    I'll say ND/T and cash if he next sequence goes well.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 22 08:30:10 2023
    XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:5:1:0:7:10

    Score is X:5 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X X X | | X X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 156 X-O: 5-1/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This is a massive pass for money (see below) and I wasn't sure that
    O could take even at this score. Does Woolsey's law (double if you're
    not sure it's a take) apply? I doubled, and XG says it's a big take
    and not a double. I underestimated how much of X's equity comes from
    gammon wins. If I had had to guess over the board, I would probably
    have guessed that X wins a little over 80% of the time and wins a
    gammon a little over 15% of the time.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 78.42% (G:23.54% B:2.61%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 21.58% (G:2.58% B:0.05%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 77.51% (G:33.08% B:2.84%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 22.49% (G:2.79% B:0.09%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.887
    Double/Take: +0.809 (-0.077)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.113)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 40.6%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.874..+0.899)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.788..+0.830)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X X X | | X X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 77.22% (G:25.68% B:0.87%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 22.78% (G:2.61% B:0.10%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 78.25% (G:25.56% B:1.17%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 21.75% (G:2.73% B:0.10%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +1.022
    Double/Take: +1.444 (+0.422)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.022)

    Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.0%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+1.009..+1.036)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.426..+1.463)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)