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  • 51 to play, unlimited play

    From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jul 18 17:22:04 2023
    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51




    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Tue Jul 18 21:07:37 2023
    On 7/18/2023 5:22 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O     X  O     X |
     | X           O    |   | O        O       |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O        X  X    |   | X  O        O    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 160  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    We have the slightly weaker board, so that maybe suggests a safe
    play, but we have no safe play. I'd just whack the blot with 6/5*
    and bring down another checker from the midpoint with 13/8.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Thu Jul 20 11:11:48 2023
    On 7/18/2023 5:22 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O     X  O     X |
     | X           O    |   | O        O       |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O        X  X    |   | X  O        O    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 160  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    Hitting loose on the five point seemed automatic, and then it was a
    matter of whether to bring one down vs running. I didn't consider
    bringing two down, but that's XG's choice by the ned for tarrowest of
    margins.


    This came up in the online match and nobody voted for D.

    XG four ply plays two down from the midpoint instead of hitting loose.
    XGR++ favors hitting and bringing one down from the midpoint.
    Full 1296 rollout favors two down by the smallest amounts.
    Running after hitting loose is a mid-sized .052 error:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/8 eq:-0.235
    Player: 44.67% (G:10.57% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 55.33% (G:16.05% B:0.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.250..-0.220) - [62.1%]
    Duration: 6 minutes 41 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5* eq:-0.239 (-0.004)
    Player: 45.61% (G:12.31% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 54.39% (G:18.90% B:1.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.255..-0.222) - [37.9%]
    Duration: 7 minutes 50 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 21/16 6/5* eq:-0.287 (-0.052)
    Player: 45.23% (G:11.08% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 54.77% (G:21.22% B:1.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.302..-0.272) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Thu Jul 20 13:53:27 2023
    On 7/18/2023 5:22 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O     X  O     X |
     | X           O    |   | O        O       |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O        X  X    |   | X  O        O    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 160  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    Whacking the blot on the five point seemed mandatory, then it was a
    question of bringing one down or running a back checker. But XG, with
    mixed results depending on the strength of the analysis, favors making a candlestick in the eight.

    Not the kind of play a human would usually even consider, but the
    "normal" play is well within the margin of error.

    XG four ply plays 13/9 9/8 to stack the eight point instead of hitting
    loose.
    XGR++ favors hitting and bringing one down from the midpoint.
    Full 1296 rollout favors the stacking play by the smallest amounts.
    Running after hitting loose is a mid-sized .052 error:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/8 eq:-0.235
    Player: 44.67% (G:10.57% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 55.33% (G:16.05% B:0.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.250..-0.220) - [62.1%]
    Duration: 6 minutes 41 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5* eq:-0.239 (-0.004)
    Player: 45.61% (G:12.31% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 54.39% (G:18.90% B:1.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.255..-0.222) - [37.9%]
    Duration: 7 minutes 50 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 21/16 6/5* eq:-0.287 (-0.052)
    Player: 45.23% (G:11.08% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 54.77% (G:21.22% B:1.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.302..-0.272) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Fri Jul 21 08:10:25 2023
    On 7/20/2023 1:53 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    XG four ply plays 13/9 9/8 to stack the eight point instead of hitting
    loose.

    Do you mean that 13/9 9/8 is the play with the highest 4-ply
    evaluation? There isn't any way to get XG 4-ply to actually
    *play* a game, is there?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Sep 21 08:50:51 2023
    On Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 9:07:40 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 7/18/2023 5:22 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51
    We have the slightly weaker board, so that maybe suggests a safe
    play, but we have no safe play. I'd just whack the blot with 6/5*
    and bring down another checker from the midpoint with 13/8.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    So you don't consider 8, 8 a safe play because the back checkers are split?

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Sep 21 08:58:20 2023
    On Friday, July 21, 2023 at 8:10:28 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 7/20/2023 1:53 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    XG four ply plays 13/9 9/8 to stack the eight point instead of hitting loose.
    Do you mean that 13/9 9/8 is the play with the highest 4-ply
    evaluation? There isn't any way to get XG 4-ply to actually
    *play* a game, is there?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I assume you're being pedantic just to ask if one can actually play against strictly 4 ply as phrasing it like ah....Clem did is exactly what I'd say too if hit the 4 ply analysis button and was reporting that back. Anyway, no, afaik one can't play
    against XG 4 ply though playing against XG Roller many decisions will be analyzed only to the 4 ply level.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Sep 22 09:28:55 2023
    On 9/21/2023 11:50 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 9:07:40 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 7/18/2023 5:22 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

    XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51
    We have the slightly weaker board, so that maybe suggests a safe
    play, but we have no safe play. I'd just whack the blot with 6/5*
    and bring down another checker from the midpoint with 13/8.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    So you don't consider 8, 8 a safe play because the back checkers are split?

    Yes, that's correct.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)