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  • 4-away/3-away recube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 16 08:41:58 2023
    XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Jul 16 14:36:52 2023
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow


    I'd say Double / Drop.

    Other than getting a couple large doubles, O is in a precarious
    position. It's doubtful he would hit in his inner board so even if X
    can't get out now he's probably safe there. Live to fight another day.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Jul 16 16:45:30 2023
    On 7/16/2023 8:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        O       |   | O  O  O     X  O |
     |          O       |   | O  O  O        O |
     |                  |   |    O           O |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |       X          |
     |                  |   |    O  X          | +---+
     |          X       |   | X  O  X  X     X | | 2 |
     |          X       |   | X  O  X  X  X  X | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 92  O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action


    O's takepoint AtS is an elevated 40%. She probably has that now, but if
    X springs the runner and isn't hit she won't. So, enough market losers
    to ship it and definitely a cube against a human since some will pass.


    R/T.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Renan Moritz@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Sun Jul 16 17:47:20 2023
    On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 5:45:31 PM UTC-3, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 7/16/2023 8:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    O's takepoint AtS is an elevated 40%. She probably has that now, but if
    X springs the runner and isn't hit she won't. So, enough market losers
    to ship it and definitely a cube against a human since some will pass.


    R/T.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    O is 24 points behind in the race, and I cannot see many pluses in its position, I do not believe it has 40%. I would rather pass
    Anyway OTB I agree, many players would rather pass than define the match this time

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jul 18 07:58:51 2023
    XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Does O have 40% winning chances here? I thought so. She has a
    four-point board and X still has work to do to bring his two
    stragglers home. Admittedly O has dead checkers on her 1pt, but
    X has semi-dead checkers of his own. Nevertheless, XG believes
    that this is a pass. But it doesn't require that much tweaking
    to turn this into a take (see variants below).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 61.11% (G:10.44% B:0.09%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 38.89% (G:4.50% B:0.19%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 62.05% (G:13.69% B:0.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 37.95% (G:4.75% B:0.11%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.858 (-0.142)
    Redouble/Take: +1.101 (+0.101)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.852..+0.865)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.093..+1.110)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-BABDcB--B-----Ab--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 58.79% (G:10.96% B:0.14%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 41.21% (G:5.52% B:0.10%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 59.45% (G:13.36% B:0.14%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 40.55% (G:5.68% B:0.07%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.781 (-0.195)
    Redouble/Take: +0.976
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.774..+0.788)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+0.968..+0.984)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bdb-Ab-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 92 O: 120 X-O: 3-4/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 57.86% (G:11.67% B:0.10%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 42.14% (G:6.13% B:0.25%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 58.16% (G:14.46% B:0.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 41.84% (G:6.19% B:0.10%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.703 (-0.211)
    Redouble/Take: +0.914
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.086)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.695..+0.711)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.905..+0.922)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)