XGID=-a-B-BC-BaB-bB---c-ccbB---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/14/2023 7:26 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-B-BC-BaB-bB---c-ccbB---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
 |             O    |   | O  O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O     X     X    |   | X  X     X       |
 | O     X  O  X    |   | X  X     X     O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 140  O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

This looks more like a priming battle than an attacking contest. That
favors making the bar point.

OTOH, making the bar means abandoning the midpoint and outfield coverage
should O spring the runner. Seems like a toss up so I'll go with making
the four point since that seems to be the default play.

10/4(2)

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-B-BC-BaB-bB---c-ccbB---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

It seems like ah...clem and Renan are tempted to think, "When in
doubt, make the 4pt." But XG says that would be a whopper here.
Ah...clem started off with the right idea, noting that this is
more of a priming battle than an attacking contest. You can also
apply the principle of asking, "which is harder?"---making the bar
point now and later making the 4pt, or making the 4pt now and later
making the bar point? It should be easier to make the 4pt later
after making the bar point first.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) eq:+0.324
Player: 58.57% (G:14.85% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 41.43% (G:9.06% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.313..+0.336) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4(2) eq:+0.206 (-0.119)
Player: 54.32% (G:16.97% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 45.68% (G:9.82% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.193..+0.219) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)