XGID=--a-ABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/10/2023 8:19 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a-ABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O  O  O  X  X  O |
 | X           O  O |   | O  O  O  X  X    |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                | +---+
 | O           X    |   | X  X             | | 2 |
 | O     X     X    |   | X  X  X     O    | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 174  O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

Making the four point is safer, but with the backgame structure safe
play is not necessartily the best play. I think the best winning
strategy is to block O's runner and watch her board crunch earlier than
the pipcount would suggest. 60 pips of timing is marginal for a
backgame, but when O has a checker stuck behind a prime it's much better.

I make the bar point here.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-ABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

I believe ah...clem had the right idea. Avoiding blots is less
important here than making sure that O's big rolls play poorly for
her. Blocking 5's by making the bar point helps achieve that.

I also did a quick rollout of a variant, though stronger settings
are probably warranted for it.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.069
Player: 45.74% (G:9.35% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 54.26% (G:26.64% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.082..-0.057) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3 eq:-0.208 (-0.139)
Player: 40.93% (G:7.42% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 59.07% (G:25.75% B:1.47%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.220..-0.196) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.276 (-0.206)
Player: 38.31% (G:7.20% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 61.69% (G:25.73% B:1.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.288..-0.264) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.263
Player: 39.44% (G:6.73% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 60.56% (G:26.63% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.287..-0.239) - [50.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3* eq:-0.263
Player: 39.18% (G:8.27% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 60.82% (G:27.19% B:1.76%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.275..-0.251) - [49.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/12/2023 8:56 AM, I wrote:

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O  O  O  X  X  O |
 | X           O  O |   | O  O  O  X  X    |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                | +---+
 | O           X    |   | X  X             | | 2 |
 | O     X     X    |   | X  X  X  O       | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 174  O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹    13/7 10/7                    eq:-0.263
      Player:   39.44% (G:6.73% B:0.24%)
      Opponent: 60.56% (G:26.63% B:1.53%)
      Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.287..-0.239) - [50.7%]

    2. Rollout¹    10/4 6/3*                    eq:-0.263
      Player:   39.18% (G:8.27% B:0.45%)
      Opponent: 60.82% (G:27.19% B:1.76%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.275..-0.251) - [49.3%]

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Dice Seed: 271828
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Here's a rollout with stronger settings. Same qualitative
verdict although the absolute equities are a little different.


XGID=---aABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3* eq:-0.246
Player: 39.66% (G:8.06% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 60.34% (G:26.93% B:1.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.255..-0.237) - [54.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.247 (-0.001)
Player: 39.55% (G:7.12% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 60.45% (G:26.65% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.255..-0.238) - [45.7%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 8:56:56 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a-ABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
I believe ah...clem had the right idea. Avoiding blots is less
important here than making sure that O's big rolls play poorly for
her. Blocking 5's by making the bar point helps achieve that.

I also did a quick rollout of a variant, though stronger settings
are probably warranted for it.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.069
Player: 45.74% (G:9.35% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 54.26% (G:26.64% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.082..-0.057) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3 eq:-0.208 (-0.139)
Player: 40.93% (G:7.42% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 59.07% (G:25.75% B:1.47%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.220..-0.196) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.276 (-0.206)
Player: 38.31% (G:7.20% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 61.69% (G:25.73% B:1.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.288..-0.264) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.263
Player: 39.44% (G:6.73% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 60.56% (G:26.63% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.287..-0.239) - [50.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3* eq:-0.263
Player: 39.18% (G:8.27% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 60.82% (G:27.19% B:1.76%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.275..-0.251) - [49.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Blocking the big numbers is important of course but we also have some sort of threat when we make the bar point instead of the four point if we're not hit. We threaten to make the four point naturally next turn with almost half our rolls which would
give us a solid 5 prime with the opponent not on the edge. If we make the flat play of 13/7 in the original position we threaten nothing. The opponent will always be able to see the outfield. Other small things of note are we gain back more timing if
we're hit on our four point after making the bar point and we have a solid prime in place for the rest of the game instead of a gapper that needs work.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)