XGID=----BbCCC---aC--abccab---A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action



--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/1/2023 5:35 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

XGID=----BbCCC---aC--abccab---A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 2   O:Player 1

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O  X  O          |
 |             O  O |   | O  X  O          |
 |             O  O |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O              X |   | X                | +---+
 | O           X  X |   | X     X          | | 2 |
 | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  X          | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 130  O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

My first instinct is to pass this one because X has so many ways to
make a five-prime or even a six-prime on this roll, after which our
winning chances look pretty slim to me---O has the golden anchor and
we can't attack or prime it. But on second glance, I think maybe
this is a take. We have only one checker back, and X currently has
only a two-point board, so the gammon risk is not very high. The
pip count is even so we do have racing chances if we can leap the
prime. Finally, X can still run into trouble trying to get his back
checkers around---if he breaks anchor, we can potentially counter-
attack. RD/T.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

My instincts were the same as Tim's - it looked like a sure pass - 12 in
the zone, a checker on the roof, many rolls that make the five point,
and an advanced anchor to facilitate blitzing O off the board.

And since I didn't see many market gainers, it seemed like taking a
shake to play on for gammon was the right idea.

But the rollout says it's a dead-even choice between taking and passing
while holding is a whopper. With O slightly leading in the race,
there's enough race equity that X hasn't lost his market by enough to
justify a hold.

I tried coming up with a variant that made it TG, but failed to find
something at all similar and TG. But any improvement in X's position
pushes it into pass territory.

XGID=----BbCCC---aC--abccab---A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 70.71% (G:24.26% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.29% (G:4.31% B:0.17%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:25.18% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:4.58% B:0.24%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.615, Double=+1.231

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.888 (-0.112)
Redouble/Take: +1.000 (+0.000)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.883..+0.892)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.984..+1.017)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 51.1%

Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)