XGID=-bB---DAC---bCaaab-bb-b-B-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/17/2023 9:47 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-bB---DAC---bCaaab-bb-b-B-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O  O  O  O    |   | O  O     O     X |
 | X           O    |   | O  O     O     X |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                | +---+
 | O           X    |   | X           X  O | | 2 |
 | O           X  X |   | X           X  O | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 146  O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

If the variant in the position #4 is a hint, having blots laying around
waiting to be picked up favors making the four point. OTOH, if it's
looking like a priming battle, the bar point is better.

Both seem to apply here, but I'll make the bar point since leaving the
blot on the bar invites O to escape with tempo when we're out-boarded.

13/7.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-bB---DAC---bCaaab-bb-b-B-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

Here's another case where covering the blot seemed automatic to me
OTB. But XG disagrees. With his 2pt made, X's position is more
conducive to attacking than to priming. Also note that many of O's
sixes play well anyway.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:-0.203
Player: 37.61% (G:13.50% B:1.11%)
Opponent: 62.39% (G:22.32% B:1.95%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.215..-0.192) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.279 (-0.075)
Player: 35.23% (G:11.39% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 64.77% (G:21.95% B:1.39%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.288..-0.269) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b---BDAC---bCaaab-bb-b-B-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.158
Player: 48.93% (G:17.37% B:1.40%)
Opponent: 51.07% (G:18.37% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.149..+0.167) - [91.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.150 (-0.008)
Player: 48.74% (G:16.51% B:1.30%)
Opponent: 51.26% (G:17.95% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.141..+0.158) - [9.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)