XGID=-a-b-CB-C-A-bD---bbd-b-B--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/15/2023 9:28 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-b-CB-C-A-bD---bbd-b-B--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O     O     X    |
 | X           O  O |   | O     O     X    |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   |    X             |
 | O           X    |   | X  X     O       |
 | O     X     X    |   | X  X     O     O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 159  O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

So far I seem to be batting .000 in this series, but I'll keep trying.

Race is even, so O really wants to get the straggler out of there. By
making the bar point we make it hard for her to activate the runners and
she either has to abandon the midpoint or crunch her board. The other advantages to making the bar is that it yields a solid four prime and
unstacks.

I'll make the bar point.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-b-CB-C-A-bD---bbd-b-B--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

Once again, I think the key is that this position is primarily a
priming battle, and that making the bar point is a better priming
play. In the variant, where O's blot is in the outfield and more
vulnerable to attack, the rollout says that making the bar point
and making the 4pt are tied.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:+0.145
Player: 53.95% (G:15.70% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 46.05% (G:14.13% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.129..+0.162) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/4 eq:+0.087 (-0.059)
Player: 51.98% (G:15.53% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 48.02% (G:13.76% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.071..+0.103) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---b-CB-C-AabD---bbd-b-B--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.127
Player: 46.93% (G:12.32% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 53.07% (G:15.18% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.139..-0.116) - [83.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/4 eq:-0.135 (-0.007)
Player: 46.62% (G:12.22% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 53.38% (G:14.78% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.145..-0.125) - [16.4%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)