XGID=-----bEAD---bC---bbeb--AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/13/2023 9:02 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-----bEAD---bC---bbeb--AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O  O        X  X |
 | X           O  O |   | O  O             |
 | X                |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X  O             |
 | O           X  X |   | X  O             |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 155  O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

XG tends to like keeping checkers in front of the anchor, especially
when behind in the race. And making the four point leaves the blot on
the seven exposed. So I'll make the bar and then slot the four since I
want to hang back for more contact this far behind in the race.

13/7 6/4.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-----bEAD---bC---bbeb--AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

Covering the blot seems natural, but let's think about the alternative
of making the 4pt. After 6/4(2), we're going to play 23/21 with one of
our remaining 2's. O's 2's will then be duplicated; she won't hit our
bar point blot except with her 22 joker or with 52 or 62, and 52 and 62
are not very good rolls for her. In general, a blot in front of a high
anchor is usually not in as much danger as an average blot, and the bar
point is of less value than average when the opponent has a high anchor.
So covering with 13/7 is not automatic.

But does that mean we should make the 4pt? Notice that either way, we
are going to have blots in the opponent's board that are vulnerable to
attack. Making our own 4pt provides some protection in case of a blot-
hitting contest. I think that's what swings the balance in favor of
making the 4pt. See the variant below, in which we can anchor with
one of our 2's and are much less vulnerable to being attacked.

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/4 6/4 eq:-0.841
Player: 32.70% (G:6.11% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 67.30% (G:25.29% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.857..-0.824) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/21 13/7 eq:-0.915 (-0.075)
Player: 30.95% (G:5.74% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 69.05% (G:24.84% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.932..-0.898) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/22 23/21 6/4(2) eq:-0.916 (-0.076)
Player: 32.43% (G:5.69% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 67.57% (G:27.68% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.931..-0.901) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-----bEAD---bC---bbeb-A-A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/7 eq:-0.556
Player: 35.00% (G:5.67% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 65.00% (G:10.78% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.568..-0.543) - [72.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/4 6/4 eq:-0.561 (-0.005)
Player: 35.34% (G:6.10% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 64.66% (G:12.59% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.574..-0.549) - [27.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)