XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, May 1, 2023 at 2:39:57 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

PoH for sure, but it's hard for me to justify it.
It's not as if anchoring is as senseless as
Norman Mailer.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, May 1, 2023 at 9:39:57 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Anchoring and PoH are close. To me, what breaks the tie is taking away a good 6 from O. So make the anchor. Then I'd hit as it unstacks the 6 point and doesn't strip the midpoint.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

O has 9 checkers in the zone and has the better board (even after we
PoH, if we choose to do so), so she does have an attacking threat,
which incentivizes anchoring. The 3pt evidently isn't valuable enough
to justify the PoH play. See the variant, where the choice is between anchoring and pointing on the 4pt.

1. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/10 eq:+0.137
Player: 54.02% (G:10.38% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 45.98% (G:9.81% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.125..+0.149) - [94.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/18 6/3* eq:+0.122 (-0.015)
Player: 52.94% (G:12.13% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 47.06% (G:10.87% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.109..+0.136) - [6.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/3 eq:+0.040 (-0.097)
Player: 51.11% (G:14.81% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 48.89% (G:14.47% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.025..+0.055) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--a-E-CB--dC---cAdb-A---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. XG Roller++ 8/4* 6/4 eq:+0.171
Player: 54.19% (G:15.33% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 45.81% (G:12.84% B:0.47%)

2. XG Roller++ 22/18 13/11 eq:+0.132 (-0.039)
Player: 53.88% (G:9.60% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 46.12% (G:8.86% B:0.31%)

3. XG Roller++ 22/18 6/4* eq:+0.102 (-0.069)
Player: 52.90% (G:11.58% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 47.10% (G:10.94% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On May 1, 2023 at 7:39:57 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
X to play 53

23/10, 13/18

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)