XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbb-a-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X O X | | X X |
| X X X O X | | X X |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 4/28/2023 1:10 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbb-a-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X O X | | X X |
| X X X O X | | X X |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

In a mutual holding game with equal pip count, one generally tries not
to leave any shots. Despite the blot in O's board, I think that
principle holds here. The default move is 8/4 6/1, and the only problem
is that it kills a checker and leaves us totally stripped. But what
else is there? I don't see that leaving a direct shot is any better.
That leaves 12/3, but that creates an awkward structure and still leaves
6 indirect shots. I'd just play 8/4 6/1. Even if our next roll is not
that great, we can probably still play off the 12pt and maintain a
decent position.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 1:10:16 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbb-a-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X O X | | X X |
| X X X O X | | X X |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

XG wants to leave a blot on the bar point. I'm still a little surprised that it is worth it. Before I started reading modern backgammon material, especially Michy, I might have made that play, but now....? Haven't come up with any illuminating variants,
but I'm guessing a lead in the race might change XG's appetite for leaving the blot.
Bob

XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbb-a-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 12/7 8/4 eq:-0.106
Player: 46.94% (G:8.09% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 53.06% (G:7.05% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.121..-0.091) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.161 (-0.055)
Player: 45.34% (G:6.02% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 54.66% (G:7.37% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.176..-0.147) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 12/3 eq:-0.165 (-0.059)
Player: 45.05% (G:6.91% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 54.95% (G:6.75% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.179..-0.151) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.183 (-0.077)
Player: 44.67% (G:7.53% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 55.33% (G:7.42% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.198..-0.169) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout³ 8/3 6/2 eq:-0.191 (-0.085)
Player: 44.93% (G:6.05% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 55.07% (G:7.85% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.207..-0.175) - [0.0%]

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 5/1/2023 9:40 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XG wants to leave a blot on the bar point. I'm still a little surprised that it is worth it. Before I started reading modern backgammon material, especially Michy, I might have made that play, but now....? Haven't come up with any illuminating variants,

but I'm guessing a lead in the race might change XG's appetite for leaving the blot.

The blot in O's board has something to do with it. I mentioned
this in my commentary, but didn't think it was enough to justify
the bold play. Evidently XG begs to differ.

XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbc---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. XG Roller++ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.129
Player: 46.22% (G:5.77% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 53.78% (G:6.81% B:0.18%)

2. XG Roller++ 8/3 6/2 eq:-0.132 (-0.003)
Player: 45.99% (G:6.22% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 54.01% (G:7.18% B:0.21%)

3. XG Roller++ 12/3 eq:-0.156 (-0.028)
Player: 45.33% (G:5.57% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 54.67% (G:5.91% B:0.17%)

4. XG Roller++ 12/7 8/4 eq:-0.187 (-0.059)
Player: 44.28% (G:8.08% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 55.72% (G:7.29% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:52:03 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 5/1/2023 9:40 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XG wants to leave a blot on the bar point. I'm still a little surprised that it is worth it. Before I started reading modern backgammon material, especially Michy, I might have made that play, but now....? Haven't come up with any illuminating

variants, but I'm guessing a lead in the race might change XG's appetite for leaving the blot.

The blot in O's board has something to do with it. I mentioned
this in my commentary, but didn't think it was enough to justify
the bold play. Evidently XG begs to differ.

XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbc---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
1. XG Roller++ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.129
Player: 46.22% (G:5.77% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 53.78% (G:6.81% B:0.18%)

2. XG Roller++ 8/3 6/2 eq:-0.132 (-0.003)
Player: 45.99% (G:6.22% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 54.01% (G:7.18% B:0.21%)

3. XG Roller++ 12/3 eq:-0.156 (-0.028)
Player: 45.33% (G:5.57% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 54.67% (G:5.91% B:0.17%)

4. XG Roller++ 12/7 8/4 eq:-0.187 (-0.059)
Player: 44.28% (G:8.08% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 55.72% (G:7.29% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Seems right. You can put that checker just about anywhere else and the safer play prevails.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On April 28, 2023 at 11:10:16 AM UTC-6, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=-B-BAbC-C---B--b-c-cBbb-a-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
X to play 54

12/4, 8/7

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)