XGID=-b--aAE-DA--eC---b-e----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 12:36:09 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b--aAE-DA--eC---b-e----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

This may be one of those situations where X is so far ahead that it doesn't hurt to lose some pips for the sake of waiting to make points where you want them, rather then settling for the three point. Also, X could stand to have his midpoint replenished
with the 65. The alternative play, making the three point, is so-so. Pro: X's front-heavy position. Cons: O has a deep anchor and a chance at an advanced anchor; making the three point doesn't reduce Os shots by much.
To me, the pip count makes the leap a reasonable play.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b--aAE-DA--eC---b-e----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

I was not able to find a plausible variant of this position in which
XG plays 24/13. Making the 3pt reduces shots, makes a useful offensive
point, and unstacks the 8pt.

I eventually did find a position in which XG plays 24/13, but it's such
a drastic modification that I'm not even going to call it a variant.

1. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/3 eq:+0.515
Player: 60.73% (G:21.33% B:1.28%)
Opponent: 39.27% (G:8.54% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.499..+0.531) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:+0.393 (-0.122)
Player: 58.90% (G:17.30% B:1.08%)
Opponent: 41.10% (G:10.11% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.378..+0.408) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------------
Some other position
-------------------

XGID=-b--a-E-CA-BeC---b-e----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:+0.621
Player: 64.48% (G:17.60% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 35.52% (G:7.53% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.608..+0.634) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/3 eq:+0.579 (-0.042)
Player: 62.48% (G:21.76% B:1.55%)
Opponent: 37.52% (G:8.13% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.567..+0.592) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)