XGID=--bC-AEbD----B----abcbc---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X O | | X X O |
| X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at 8:27:17 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--bC-AEbD----B----abcbc---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X O | | X X O |
| X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

I've seen some pretty ugly positions that are the right play when you've moved your back checkers out. But the plays I'm finding after lifting the checker are not only ugly, but have nasty 6s and uncomfortable 5s, e.g. 8/4 6/4 5/5, 6/4(2) 5/1, and others.
Too much for me to do with my eyes open. I'd play 13/11(2) and 6/4(2) with now a candidate to cover (or return hit) the 5 coming from the 11 point.
Still, a sneaking suspicion I'm wrong. I'm falling into every trap lately.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--bC-AEbD----B----abcbc---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X O | | X X O |
| X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

It's pretty clear what the pros and cons of lifting the blot are, and
it's mainly a question of how much weight to put on the various factors.
XG clearly favors leaving the 5pt slotted. But see also the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.616
Player: 67.87% (G:11.23% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 32.13% (G:6.05% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.608..+0.624) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 5/1 eq:+0.551 (-0.065)
Player: 64.66% (G:11.16% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 35.34% (G:6.37% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.541..+0.561) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 5/1 eq:+0.543 (-0.073)
Player: 63.93% (G:7.50% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 36.07% (G:5.21% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.533..+0.553) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 5/3 eq:+0.521 (-0.095)
Player: 63.78% (G:10.79% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 36.22% (G:5.89% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.509..+0.533) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--bC-AEbD----B----bbbbb-a-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X O | | X X O |
| X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.588
Player: 67.40% (G:11.08% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 32.60% (G:5.86% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.583..+0.593) - [98.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 5/1 eq:+0.577 (-0.011)
Player: 65.24% (G:11.57% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 34.76% (G:6.24% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.568..+0.586) - [1.4%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)