On 10/25/2021 3:19 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
XGID=----B-B-B--ac-a--bbcCDb-aB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | O |
| | | X O O |
| X X | | X O O X |
| X X X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 230 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Nobody bit on this one, perhaps because it's really unclear what the
take action is. With Jacoby, the cube seems fairly obvious, but the
take decision seems to be confusing to everyone, including the bots;
XG 3-ply says Pass by .012
XG 4-ply says Pass by .044
XGR+ says Pass by .005
XGR++ says Take by .002
gnubg analysis says Pass by .114
And XG 1296 3-ply rollout says Take by .104 and it's barely a cube (.013
error to hold) See rollout below.
Yes, this actually came up in a game. My verdict was too many gammons
to take, and at nearly 50% that is a lot. But the ~40% wins (some of
which will have the cube at 4) make it a take. If you can believe XG
rollout.
XGID=----B-B-B--ac-a--bbcCDb-aB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 62.19% (G:47.46% B:1.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.81% (G:6.53% B:0.24%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.96% (G:47.25% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.04% (G:6.52% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.663, Double=+1.267
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.883 (-0.013)
Double/Take: +0.896
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.104)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.023 (+0.860..+0.906)
Confidence Double: ± 0.036 (+0.860..+0.932)
Double Decision confidence: 72.4%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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