XGID=---b-BCBBB-AbA-a-bce----B-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 9:52:47 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---b-BCBBB-AbA-a-bce----B-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

X's timing for holding that prime looks challenging. I think getting the back checkers out is urgent. The prime for the moment is functionally a 6 prime, until O rolls some 1s. 6s into her home board might prove hazardous for O, so splitting the back
checkers may work out. I would play 24/21 and then 11/10 to be ready to hit O if she moves a checker to the edge of the prime.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---b-BCBBB-AbA-a-bce----B-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

I couldn't resist the temptation to clean up my blot and complete a
six-prime. After all, O's prime looks pretty weak by comparison, so
what's the rush to get moving? However, as Bob pointed out, X's prime
is already extremely strong, and if X does not split, then he has some
awkward rolls which force him to break his prime.

1. Rollout¹ 24/23 24/21 eq:+0.319
Player: 68.09% (G:16.22% B:0.89%)
Opponent: 31.91% (G:9.24% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.309..+0.330) - [87.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/20 eq:+0.311 (-0.009)
Player: 68.00% (G:15.62% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 32.00% (G:9.26% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.300..+0.321) - [12.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/5 eq:+0.292 (-0.028)
Player: 67.03% (G:15.58% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 32.97% (G:9.36% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.280..+0.303) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/21 11/10 eq:+0.280 (-0.040)
Player: 66.96% (G:16.38% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 33.04% (G:10.36% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.269..+0.290) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/10 eq:+0.232 (-0.088)
Player: 65.24% (G:14.39% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 34.76% (G:9.64% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.220..+0.244) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/8 eq:+0.232 (-0.088)
Player: 65.15% (G:14.79% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 34.85% (G:9.77% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.222..+0.241) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/10 eq:+0.174 (-0.146)
Player: 63.39% (G:13.17% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 36.61% (G:9.13% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.163..+0.184) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)