XGID=-bBB--BBAAb--Ba--bccBb--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 11:12:02 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-bBB--BBAAb--Ba--bccBb--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

The opponent seems to have a lot of play, and the pip count is close with our board not that
strong. I'm more confident in the take decision than in the double decision.
A hit followed by a dance is likely to be a market loser, as is making another inner board point.
Also, the cube is centred.
Double/Take is my verdict but with no confidence. I'm not even sure my chances of being right
are greater than 50%.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-bBB--BBAAb--Ba--bccBb--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

It's instructive to compare this position with the previous position
I posted. There is a superficial similarity: X has the golden anchor,
which is shooting at a blot on O's 11pt, and O has a 1pt anchor. X has
a three-point board and O has a two-point board. But clearly, O is
doing better here; it's X's distribution that is awkward, while O's
position is (apart from the features already mentioned) pretty sound.

Still, I'm surprised to see that XG says that doubling is a massive
blunder here. Even if we upgrade X's 2pt to his 5pt (see variant),
XG claims it's barely a double.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 56.38% (G:20.57% B:1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.62% (G:10.95% B:0.57%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.54% (G:20.34% B:1.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.46% (G:10.90% B:0.54%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.335
Double/Take: +0.139 (-0.196)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.665)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.7%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.319..+0.351)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.117..+0.161)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b-B-BBBAAb--Ba--bccBb--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.42% (G:23.95% B:1.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.58% (G:7.74% B:0.36%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.46% (G:24.88% B:1.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.54% (G:7.92% B:0.38%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.751 (-0.015)
Double/Take: +0.766
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.234)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.737..+0.765)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.747..+0.786)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Incidentally, I want to mention that this position and the
previous position happened to arise in two separate matches
that I played against XG on the same day. I misjudged both
positions OTB.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)