XGID=-b-BABC--B--bBa--c-eB-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, April 15, 2023 at 10:50:30 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-BABC--B--bBa--c-eB-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

There aren't any bad rolls for X. Most create improvement and none really hurt, but not covering that blot would be a hazard, for sure. Over the board I wouldn't bank on this being TG, so would just double. But it does look like one inner board blot away
from TG.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b-BABC--B--bBa--c-eB-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I've found that this type of midgame action cube, where the pip
count is level and both players have an anchor, is usually a take,
*except* when the taker's anchor is an ace-point anchor, when it
can be a pass. I'm still a little surprised at how big XG thinks
the pass is, but I guess that O's awkward distribution has something
to do with it.

In the variant, I've shifted O's anchor forward and also shifted
X's 9pt to his 8pt.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.44% (G:26.14% B:1.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.56% (G:5.55% B:0.20%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.84% (G:26.97% B:1.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.16% (G:5.78% B:0.24%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.914 (-0.086)
Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.905..+0.923)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+1.147..+1.177)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--bBABC-B---bBa--c-eB-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.12% (G:20.70% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.88% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.32% (G:21.41% B:1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.68% (G:6.08% B:0.24%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.853 (-0.103)
Double/Take: +0.956
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.044)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.842..+0.864)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.939..+0.972)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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