XGID=--a-CbC-CB---D-aab-bbbb---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-CbC-CB---D-aab-bbbb---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

I hit here, but attacking isn't a priority for X in this position.
He wants a safe and flexible position that will allow him to bring
home all his checkers with a minimum of fuss. 8/2* 4/2 strips two
points and reduces his flexibility.

The PoH play is a much better candidate in the variant, where it
unstacks X's awkward stack on the 6pt.

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 9/7(2) eq:+0.746
Player: 71.82% (G:3.01% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 28.18% (G:1.84% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.737..+0.755) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 8/4 eq:+0.680 (-0.066)
Player: 69.69% (G:3.90% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 30.31% (G:2.46% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.670..+0.689) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2* 4/2 eq:+0.671 (-0.075)
Player: 69.13% (G:4.65% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 30.87% (G:3.29% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.662..+0.681) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) eq:+0.661 (-0.085)
Player: 69.21% (G:3.18% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 30.79% (G:2.23% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.653..+0.670) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a-BbE-BB---D-aab-bbbb---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.679
Player: 69.53% (G:3.97% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 30.47% (G:2.63% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.669..+0.688) - [89.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2*(2) eq:+0.670 (-0.009)
Player: 68.96% (G:4.65% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 31.04% (G:3.24% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.661..+0.680) - [10.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/4/2023 9:04 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---BBBBA----bC---cdd--BbA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  O |   | O        X  O  X |
 | X           O  O |   | O        X  O    |
 | X           O  O |   | O                |  |                O |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X  X  X  X       |
 | O              X |   | X  X  X  X       |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 150  O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

I'll keep the stinger in place since the race is so lopsided.

22/13 is intriguing, but looks to lose too many gammons. OTOH, with X's
strong board O might not risk hitting loose.

QF implies he prosaic 13/4 is probably wrong, but that's what I'll do.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BBBBA----bC---cdd--BbA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BBBBA----bC---cdd--BbA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

In a holding game with an extra checker back, deciding what to do with
the extra checker can be tricky. Staying back can generate more contact
and more opportunities for that much-needed shot. On the other hand,
the extra checker can be vulnerable to attack, and it can interfere
with your timing.

In this position, XG favors stepping up with 24/21. I believe that a
key motivation is to take advantage of O's bad rolls. In particular,
63 and 53 are O's worst rolls, and 24/21 gives X a direct shot at O's
blot after she plays 13/10. Of course, O has good rolls that point
on X's head, but those rolls are excellent rolls for O anyway.

The variant below makes a significant change to the position, but I
think it's still instructive. 24/21 no longer makes O's bad rolls
worse.

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 eq:-0.577
Player: 35.26% (G:5.33% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.74% (G:7.66% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.587..-0.567) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.651 (-0.074)
Player: 33.82% (G:5.05% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 66.18% (G:9.50% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.661..-0.641) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.653 (-0.076)
Player: 33.19% (G:5.11% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 66.81% (G:8.78% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.663..-0.642) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq:-0.674 (-0.097)
Player: 32.41% (G:4.33% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 67.59% (G:6.56% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.685..-0.663) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---BBBBA----bC-b-cbd--BbA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O X |
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.758
Player: 30.00% (G:4.98% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 70.00% (G:9.28% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.768..-0.749) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 eq:-0.778 (-0.020)
Player: 29.78% (G:3.90% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 70.22% (G:7.98% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.789..-0.768) - [0.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.784 (-0.025)
Player: 29.86% (G:4.26% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 70.14% (G:9.79% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.794..-0.773) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)