XGID=--B-aCC--B-A---A---deB-cbA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 78 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, April 6, 2023 at 8:45:29 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--B-aCC--B-A---A---deB-cbA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 78 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Clearly not. I don't even know if I hit at dmp which means here it would be suicidal.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--B-aCC--B-A---A---deB-cbA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 78 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

Hitting isn't the only tactic to contain a straggler; you can also try
to rely on outfield coverage. The outfield coverage here after bar/17
is pretty good. On the other hand, if you hit and are hit back, then
O's strong board means you're going to be in big trouble.

In the variant, I have weakened O's board to the point where XG hits,
despite the increased risk of losing a gammon.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/17 eq:-0.265
Player: 38.52% (G:3.46% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 61.48% (G:24.38% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.273..-0.257) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4* eq:-0.429 (-0.164)
Player: 38.81% (G:4.14% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 61.19% (G:39.24% B:2.65%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.438..-0.420) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 11/6 eq:-0.486 (-0.221)
Player: 32.53% (G:3.93% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 67.47% (G:31.24% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.494..-0.479) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--B-aCC--B-A---A---deB-daA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4* eq:-0.080
Player: 47.59% (G:7.42% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 52.41% (G:30.49% B:1.73%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.090..-0.070) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17 eq:-0.110 (-0.029)
Player: 42.86% (G:4.80% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 57.14% (G:21.02% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.118..-0.101) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)