XGID=--A-A-D-CB-acB---bbeB--b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 8:46:52 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--A-A-D-CB-acB---bbeB--b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Thinking about the potential upcoming cube action should make the correct play clear as day here.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--A-A-D-CB-acB---bbeB--b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

When the opponent is threatening to convert to a holding game, the
incentive to hit is high. I balked here because of my weak board,
but XG says that indeed, I must hit (regardless of cube location).
Not hitting is a triple whopper with cheese (!) according to the
rollout. If I strengthen O's board considerably then hitting of
course becomes less attractive (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/11* eq:-0.420
Player: 39.54% (G:8.78% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 60.46% (G:16.88% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.436..-0.405) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11* 4/1 eq:-0.500 (-0.079)
Player: 37.13% (G:7.87% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 62.87% (G:15.35% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.512..-0.487) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11* 11/8 eq:-0.524 (-0.104)
Player: 36.99% (G:7.55% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 63.01% (G:15.71% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.536..-0.512) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/11* 8/5 eq:-0.667 (-0.247)
Player: 35.65% (G:8.33% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 64.35% (G:25.83% B:1.51%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.689..-0.645) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/11* 6/3 eq:-0.691 (-0.270)
Player: 34.38% (G:7.63% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 65.62% (G:23.03% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.714..-0.667) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:-0.780 (-0.359)
Player: 27.03% (G:1.28% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 72.97% (G:1.77% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.789..-0.770) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 8/5 4/2 eq:-0.793 (-0.372)
Player: 26.68% (G:1.28% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 73.32% (G:1.71% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.802..-0.783) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--A-A-D-CB-acB---bbcBbb---:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| X O O | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/11* eq:-0.422
Player: 30.50% (G:5.42% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 69.50% (G:19.67% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.430..-0.415) - [91.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:-0.429 (-0.006)
Player: 25.39% (G:1.30% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 74.61% (G:2.26% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.434..-0.424) - [8.5%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 4/2 eq:-0.434 (-0.012)
Player: 25.11% (G:1.33% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 74.89% (G:2.30% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.439..-0.430) - [0.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)