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  • 7-away/5-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Mar 30 09:03:40 2023
    XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Ac-cbbcA:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X O | | 4 |
    | X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 91 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Mar 30 10:33:31 2023
    On Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:03:43 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Ac-cbbcA:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X O | | 4 |
    | X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 91 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I can see that O could win this pretty handily in the next sequence almost 30% of the time, and there are probably some more wins in there . Is it a double? If X sits on his hands, doesn't turn the cube, and loses, his chances after this game are 10%. NG.
    He should double. (I hope).

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 1 09:05:32 2023
    XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Ac-cbbcA:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X O | | 4 |
    | X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 91 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    This is similar to the previous cube decision in some sense.
    With this score and cube location, X is trigger-happy, and
    his redoubling to 8 kills gammons. Even in the more extreme
    position shown in the variant below, the rollout says to double.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 52.64% (G:9.98% B:0.33%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 47.36% (G:17.57% B:0.34%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 53.32% (G:8.36% B:0.26%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 46.68% (G:17.93% B:0.15%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.446 (-0.141)
    Redouble/Take: +0.586
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.414)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.440..+0.451)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.580..+0.593)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Abbccc-A:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X O | | 4 |
    | X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 97 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 41.56% (G:8.62% B:0.52%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 58.44% (G:27.81% B:1.55%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 41.52% (G:8.37% B:0.54%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 58.48% (G:24.89% B:0.78%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.151 (-0.011)
    Redouble/Take: +0.161
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.839)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.145..+0.156)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.155..+0.168)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Apr 25 09:13:26 2023
    XGID=--aBBaC-C----BA--AAcbb-cc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X X X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Apr 25 18:37:59 2023
    On Tuesday, April 25, 2023 at 9:13:29 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--aBBaC-C----BA--AAcbb-cc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X X X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I think I see a minimum of market losers, e.g. 31, 33, or 11 followed by O dancing. A marginal double for money, but enough to get there at 7A5A?
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Apr 27 08:20:42 2023
    XGID=--aBBaC-C----BA--AAcbb-cc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X X X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Containment positions can be very difficult to evaluate, especially
    if there are match-score considerations. Here, XG says it's a big
    double and a big take, although it also says it's a big no double
    for money.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 63.99% (G:13.93% B:0.53%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.01% (G:10.50% B:0.37%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.26% (G:15.33% B:0.81%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.74% (G:12.07% B:0.48%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.753 (-0.140)
    Redouble/Take: +0.893
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.107)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.743..+0.762)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.881..+0.905)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=--aBBaC-C----BA--AAcbb-cc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X X X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 88 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 64.06% (G:13.34% B:0.44%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.94% (G:9.16% B:0.15%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.70% (G:13.56% B:0.49%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.30% (G:9.64% B:0.17%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.573
    Redouble/Take: +0.504 (-0.069)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.427)

    Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.0%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.564..+0.583)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.488..+0.519)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 14 08:02:17 2023
    XGID=-Ba-B-DaD---bB-a-a-ccb-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 128 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 14 19:13:58 2023
    On 8/14/2023 8:02 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-Ba-B-DaD---bB-a-a-ccb-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O     O    |   | O  O  O     O    |
     | X                |   | O  O  O          |
     |                  |   | O  O             |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X     X        X |
     | O           X  O |   | X     X     O  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 117  O: 128 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    This is a fairly "normal" score with a gammonless takepoint of 21 for
    the leader and 29 if you factor in a a typical gammon ratio.

    X dances 25% of the time, but hits with any 2 plus 35, 36, 31, 34, 16,
    and 14. That's 23 shots if I counted right, but not all of them are
    market losers. Maybe enough of them are to justify the cube, but I'm
    not seeing it, and the take seems pretty clear.

    So, ND/T for me.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 16 08:49:15 2023
    XGID=-Ba-B-DaD---bB-a-a-ccb-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 128 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This is one of those positions that XG says is not a double for money
    but that is more gammonish than you might think. XG says it's a big
    double.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 54.19% (G:30.12% B:3.44%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 45.81% (G:15.48% B:0.60%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 53.95% (G:30.39% B:3.69%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 46.05% (G:15.51% B:0.77%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.333 (-0.127)
    Double/Take: +0.460
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.540)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.320..+0.346)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.441..+0.478)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)