XGID=-aBBBaBAA-aa-Ba-a-Bc-bbb-A:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10

Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 129 X-O: 1-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 10:11:36 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBBBaBAA-aa-Ba-a-Bc-bbb-A:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10

Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 129 X-O: 1-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

12 immediate sequences you dance and O hits, giving her great prospects for a gammon. Might as well double for those and a few other gammons to come. If you win, you'd rather win your gammons on the 2 cube to bring you to an even match. I think it's a
double and take.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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XGID=-aBBBaBAA-aa-Ba-a-Bc-bbb-A:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10

Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X O X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 129 X-O: 1-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

X has 16 dancing rolls, which leave him in big trouble---for money,
O would be too good to redouble, according to XG. Even though almost
every entering roll is excellent for X, and doubling kills O's gammons,
I did not double here. XG says that this missed double is unspeakably
bad. Even in terms of match-winning chances, the loss is tangible, from
about 23% to about 19%.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 47.21% (G:26.39% B:6.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.79% (G:35.45% B:5.20%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.49% (G:26.52% B:6.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.51% (G:34.77% B:4.91%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.025 (-0.662)
Double/Take: +0.687
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.313)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.011..+0.040)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.664..+0.711)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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