XGID=-aBACBBB---------abbbdbaC-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:33:39 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBACBBB---------abbbdbaC-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Duplication is rarely a primary motive. But when you're swimming in cement and you see that duplication is floating at arms length, I guess I'd give it a try.
7/5 7/2

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBACBBB---------abbbdbaC-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

Should X hit for tempo and hope to escape before O completes her
six-prime, or should he hope that O won't escape her straggler
and be forced to collapse her own prime? XG says don't hit.

Bob had an interesting comment about duplication, but I think the
duplication is less important than the amount of time O has to
hold her own prime. See variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq:-0.990
Player: 16.01% (G:1.76% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 83.99% (G:35.68% B:3.57%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.997..-0.984) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 3/1* eq:-1.123 (-0.133)
Player: 12.69% (G:2.24% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 87.31% (G:40.36% B:4.50%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-1.132..-1.115) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aBACBBB---------abbbbdaC-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 90 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq:-0.973
Player: 16.53% (G:1.69% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 83.47% (G:34.79% B:3.35%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.982..-0.964) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 3/1* eq:-1.106 (-0.133)
Player: 12.69% (G:2.29% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 87.31% (G:38.81% B:4.09%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-1.114..-1.098) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Bob had an interesting comment about duplication, but I think the
duplication is less important than the amount of time O has to
hold her own prime. See variant below.

QED! Nice.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)