XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, October 27, 2021 at 4:06:24 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

13/10 (2) and 6/3(2).
But where's my analysis?
Hey, isn't that question a tad unreasonable?
I just stated my view on the desirability of maintaining extra points instead of the 5 points,
and now we're testing it out.
I don't have time to write a book on the subject.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/26/2021 11:06 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O  X |   | O  O  O          |
 | X           O  X |   | O  O             |
 | X                |   | O                |  | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O        X  X    |   | X              O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 151  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

I'm not sure what Paul's theory is, but the five point is usually more
valuable than the eight, but how much can you give up to make the five
point? Here, we can make two additional points when making the five
point means simply switching points without making a new one or leaving
a double indirect shot.

I'll just unstack the midpoint and six points. Maybe making the bar
point is better, or even playing off the eighteen.

13/10(2) 6/3(2).

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

XG doesn't think 13/10(2) is a whopper but it doesn't like it either.
In part, it's because the fly shots left by 8/5(2) aren't so serious
when O's board is weak. For comparison, see the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.374
Player: 58.14% (G:15.75% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 41.86% (G:7.27% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.363..+0.386) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.326 (-0.048)
Player: 57.65% (G:12.30% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 42.35% (G:7.35% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.313..+0.338) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a----E-CA--eD---bBcbb----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.127
Player: 53.06% (G:9.89% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 46.94% (G:8.50% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.113..+0.140) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.088 (-0.039)
Player: 51.80% (G:10.81% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 48.20% (G:8.44% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.077..+0.099) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

I've seen the answer, but here's an example which I would have bombed
this quiz.

My play would have been 18/15(2) 6/3(2)

I find it difficult to move off the opponent's bar point without
getting in trouble so anytime a double provides that option I will
usually take it.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

I already have two "active" problems posted right now, so for this
position I'm just going to post the rollout immediately. It's another
one of those positions that Paul was talking about where making the
5pt with 33 gives up the 8pt.

XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---a-dc---AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 6/3(2) eq:+0.038
Player: 51.19% (G:16.27% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 48.81% (G:15.93% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.030..+0.046) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 8/5(2) eq:-0.020 (-0.058)
Player: 49.59% (G:17.30% B:1.05%)
Opponent: 50.41% (G:17.79% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.028..-0.012) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.032 (-0.070)
Player: 49.85% (G:14.29% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 50.15% (G:16.64% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.040..-0.025) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)