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  • 54 squeezing the max

    From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Fri Mar 3 08:25:42 2023
    XGID=baBBBCBb----AB---abcbA-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:5:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X X X X X | | O |
    | O X X X X X | | O X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 164 X-O: 0-1/5
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Fri Mar 3 23:33:31 2023
    On 3/3/2023 11:25 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=baBBBCBb----AB---abcbA-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:5:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X X X X X | | O |
    | O X X X X X | | O X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 164 X-O: 0-1/5
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    I don't want O to anchor, so 5/1* is my 4, and then 13/8 is the
    most aggressive play. Sure, it leaves five blots, but O has
    three on the bar and I have a much stronger board.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Mar 4 12:41:52 2023
    On Friday, March 3, 2023 at 11:33:32 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 3/3/2023 11:25 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=baBBBCBb----AB---abcbA-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:5:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X X X X X | | O |
    | O X X X X X | | O X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 164 X-O: 0-1/5
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54
    I don't want O to anchor, so 5/1* is my 4, and then 13/8 is the
    most aggressive play. Sure, it leaves five blots, but O has
    three on the bar and I have a much stronger board.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    That's not the most aggressive play, maybe the loosest play. The most aggressive play is the right play.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Sun Mar 5 05:31:32 2023
    On Friday, March 3, 2023 at 11:25:43 AM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=baBBBCBb----AB---abcbA-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:5:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X X X X X | | O |
    | O X X X X X | | O X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 164 X-O: 0-1/5
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    The best play is to choose to leave your blot on the 6 point rather than the ace point. Then you have 22 immediate covering rolls if not hit. After cutting those covering rolls down to 13, the same play still beats others that leave a made 6 point - see
    variant.

    XGID=baBBBCBb----AB---abcbA-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:5:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X X X X X | | O |
    | O X X X X X | | O X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 164 X-O: 0-1/5
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+2.094
    Player: 89.74% (G:81.82% B:9.65%)
    Opponent: 10.26% (G:1.94% B:0.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+2.086..+2.103) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/1* eq:+2.045 (-0.049)
    Player: 89.01% (G:78.83% B:10.96%)
    Opponent: 10.99% (G:1.53% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+2.037..+2.053) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds


    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

    VARIANT
    ------------------------------------------------------------ XGID=baBBBCBb-----BA--abcbA-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:5:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X O O | | O O X X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X X X X X | | O |
    | O X X X X X | | O |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 106 O: 164 X-O: 0-1/5
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+2.039
    Player: 89.40% (G:79.82% B:8.28%)
    Opponent: 10.60% (G:1.80% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+2.031..+2.047) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 14/9 5/1* eq:+2.014 (-0.025)
    Player: 88.82% (G:77.00% B:10.78%)
    Opponent: 11.18% (G:1.21% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+2.006..+2.022) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/1* eq:+2.008 (-0.031)
    Player: 88.37% (G:77.51% B:10.98%)
    Opponent: 11.63% (G:1.64% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+1.999..+2.016) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)