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  • 5-away/2-away cube action from the bar

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Feb 16 10:11:03 2023
    XGID=-B-ABCBaAB--------AeacbbaA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 76 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Feb 16 20:08:02 2023
    On 2/16/2023 10:11 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-B-ABCBaAB--------AeacbbaA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |                X |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
     |                  |   | O     O  O  O    |
     |                  |   | O     O          |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  | X | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |          X       |   | X  X  X        X |
     |          X  X  O |   | X  X  X  X     X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 109  O: 76 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    20 rolls hit. The other 16 dance. 7 rolls hit two, although some of them
    might be better played covering.

    Is that enough to ship it? O's takepoint is 31%, although if gammons
    weren't a possibility it would only be 17%, but gammons are definitely a possibility for both sides. And if X ships it, they don't matter.

    Seems to add up to D/T. I don't think I'd cube for money or if ahead in
    the match.

    Maybe someone can explain that it is obvious without explaining why it
    is obvious.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

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  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Thu Feb 16 19:34:02 2023
    On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 8:08:09 PM UTC-5, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 2/16/2023 10:11 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-B-ABCBaAB--------AeacbbaA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 76 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    20 rolls hit. The other 16 dance. 7 rolls hit two, although some of them might be better played covering.

    Is that enough to ship it? O's takepoint is 31%, although if gammons
    weren't a possibility it would only be 17%, but gammons are definitely a possibility for both sides. And if X ships it, they don't matter.

    Seems to add up to D/T. I don't think I'd cube for money or if ahead in
    the match.

    Maybe someone can explain that it is obvious without explaining why it
    is obvious.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    The positions are fairly balanced in terms of inner boards and blots. X is on roll and favored to hit, and at 5-away 2-away the trailer should double aggressively when there is a fair chance he'll be ahead on his next roll in a volatile position with
    gammons. If X misses, O has the advantage with everything but 6s helping his inner board and X still on the bar, so it should be a take.

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 20 09:48:53 2023
    XGID=-B-ABCBaAB--------AeacbbaA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10

    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 76 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    XG says this is a clear beaver for money, but of course this isn't
    for money. Hitting usually loses X's market by a huge amount, and
    if X dances---well, gammon losses don't matter.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 49.38% (G:22.17% B:1.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 50.62% (G:22.99% B:0.96%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 48.53% (G:22.94% B:1.40%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 51.47% (G:20.41% B:0.63%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: -0.106 (-0.310)
    Double/Take: +0.204
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.796)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (-0.115..-0.097)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.193..+0.214)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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