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  • Jump out?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 4 09:50:11 2023
    XGID=-aBCBBBA--b------bBbb-cbaA:2:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 111 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Feb 5 18:54:43 2023
    On 2/4/2023 9:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBCBBBA--b------bBbb-cbaA:2:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  X |   | O  O     O  O  O | +---+
     |             O  X |   | O  O     O  O    | | 4 |
     |                  |   |          O       | +---+
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |          X       |
     |       O          |   | X  X  X  X  X    |
     |       O        X |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 111  O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 54

    Running to the 16 point dupes sixes, so that should be sound. The race
    will be even after this play, so running is thematic, or at least not non-thematic.

    7/2 leaves fewer shots (although 6s are duoed, 11 rolls hit the blot on
    the eleven while 17 hit on the 16, and there aren't that many ways to
    hit on the 21 that are playable) so maybe that's the blot play.

    With O owning a homeboard blot I'll make the more aggressive play.

    bar/16.


    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 6 09:41:16 2023
    XGID=-aBCBBBA--b------bBbb-cbaA:2:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 111 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 54

    I think ah..clem nailed this one. What's surprising to me is that
    even if we cover O's blot (see variant below), lifting and running
    are tied in the rollout.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/16 eq:+0.267
    Player: 64.63% (G:23.97% B:1.06%)
    Opponent: 35.37% (G:17.15% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.260..+0.274) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 7/2 eq:+0.193 (-0.074)
    Player: 60.93% (G:20.58% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 39.07% (G:9.68% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.185..+0.201) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aBCBBBA--b------bBbb-bbbA:2:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 111 O: 104 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 7/2 eq:-0.113
    Player: 51.60% (G:18.01% B:1.01%)
    Opponent: 48.40% (G:16.31% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.123..-0.104) - [96.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/16 eq:-0.123 (-0.009)
    Player: 53.81% (G:15.34% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 46.19% (G:26.47% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.128..-0.118) - [4.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 18 08:49:18 2023
    XGID=-ABB-BCA-a--bB-a-bcbbb-AA-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O O X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62

    Generally speaking it's important to leap a five-prime when you get the
    chance, especially when you're running out of timing. But 24/22 7/1
    steps up to the edge of the prime and makes a five-point board. The
    decision might be a close call if 7/1 were less productive (see
    variants below).

    1. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/1 eq:-0.691
    Player: 18.85% (G:2.02% B:0.02%)
    Opponent: 81.15% (G:14.06% B:0.43%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.696..-0.685) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.777 (-0.086)
    Player: 17.69% (G:3.41% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 82.31% (G:21.56% B:0.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.783..-0.771) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=--CB-BCA-a--bB-a-bcbbb-AA-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O O X | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/1 eq:-0.763
    Player: 18.29% (G:3.09% B:0.06%)
    Opponent: 81.71% (G:21.08% B:0.91%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.767..-0.758) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.773 (-0.011)
    Player: 17.61% (G:3.05% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 82.39% (G:20.55% B:0.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.777..-0.769) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=--BBABCA-a--bB-a-bcbbb-AA-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O O X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/1 eq:-0.732
    Player: 19.42% (G:3.26% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 80.58% (G:20.44% B:1.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.736..-0.727) - [90.3%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.736 (-0.004)
    Player: 19.14% (G:3.70% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 80.86% (G:20.73% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.740..-0.732) - [9.7%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)