XGID=-BbBCBB----Ab--b-bBb--Ada-:0:0:1:65:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 129 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BbBCBB----Ab--b-bBb--Ada-:0:0:1:65:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 129 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

X obviously has a massive positional advantage. He has a five-point
board, while O has a bunch of semi-dead checkers and stripped points.
At gammon go, X wants to maximize contact, and blots be damned.

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 11/5 eq:+0.973
Player: 77.12% (G:21.51% B:4.49%)
Opponent: 22.88% (G:2.61% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.967..+0.978) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/7 eq:+0.906 (-0.067)
Player: 73.33% (G:21.96% B:3.22%)
Opponent: 26.67% (G:5.84% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.900..+0.911) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/11 eq:+0.899 (-0.074)
Player: 81.77% (G:13.18% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 18.23% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.894..+0.904) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/16 11/6 eq:+0.894 (-0.079)
Player: 80.76% (G:13.92% B:1.88%)
Opponent: 19.24% (G:1.63% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.889..+0.899) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 22/16 18/13 eq:+0.861 (-0.111)
Player: 79.60% (G:13.46% B:1.35%)
Opponent: 20.40% (G:2.80% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.857..+0.866) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, January 24, 2023 at 2:58:55 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-BbBCBB----Ab--b-bBb--Ada-:0:0:1:65:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 129 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Since you say "at gammon go", I'm a bit surprised
that you're not posting variantizations for DMP and money.

Any rebuttal of the form "Why don't you do it yourself?"
is answered by the fact that my only computer with XG on
is busted. I know there are workarounds for that, but I'm lazy.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/27/2023 10:45 AM, [email protected] wrote:

Since you say "at gammon go", I'm a bit surprised
that you're not posting variantizations for DMP and money.

Fair enough. Below is a money rollout. I don't think that a DMP
rollout is necessary since 18/13 11/5 is not remotely close at DMP.

XGID=-BbBCBB----Ab--b-bBb--Ada-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O | +---+
| O O X | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 22/11 eq:+0.673
Player: 80.26% (G:15.64% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 19.74% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.667..+0.679) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16 11/6 eq:+0.654 (-0.019)
Player: 78.94% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 21.06% (G:1.87% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.648..+0.661) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/13 11/5 eq:+0.618 (-0.055)
Player: 74.64% (G:25.47% B:1.34%)
Opponent: 25.36% (G:4.25% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.610..+0.625) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

---
Tim Chow
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/24/2023 9:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BbBCBB----Ab--b-bBb--Ada-:0:0:1:65:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       O     O  X |   | O        X  O  O |  |       O     O  X |   | O           O    |  |                  |   |             O    |
 |                  |   |             O    |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |       X          |
 | O                |   | X  X  X  X  O  X |
 | O  X             |   | X  X  X  X  O  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 111  O: 129 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

O's structure is awful and an exchange of hits massively favors X. So,
I'll provoke that with 18/7. Not sure if it's right, but also not sure
if it is right for O to hit.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)