XGID=--BBa-BbB-C--Ba--b-ccaB-b-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, January 19, 2023 at 9:46:44 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--BBa-BbB-C--Ba--b-ccaB-b-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

I'd be so happy if my opponent didn't make his 5pt here with this roll. There would then be no pressure on the position.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/19/2023 9:46 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--BBa-BbB-C--Ba--b-ccaB-b-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O        O    |   | O  O  O  X     O |
 | X           O    |   | O  O     X     O |  |                  |   | O  O             |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |       X          |   |                  |
 |       X     X  O |   | X        X  X    |  |       X     X  O |   | X     O  X  X    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 138  O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

Clearing the midpoint is safe, but giving up outfield control seems like
a losing recipe. 10/2 is also safe, but buries a checker when there's
still lots of play. 8/3 8/5 also buries one and leaves a shot too. and
I'm considering clearing the six only because I want to make sure I'm
not overlooking something.

I'm not seeing anything better than making the five, and with O's
homeboard blot to shoot at and an anchor it should be sound even if the
bot likes something better.

I make the five point here.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--BBa-BbB-C--Ba--b-ccaB-b-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

Making the 5pt is strategically stronger than the alternative of
pulling up the midpoint, but is the tactical concession (a double
shot) too much? Not according to the rollout below. O's board
has a blot and she won't even hit with some of her aces.

If we strengthen O's board then the tactical concession becomes
a more serious consideration (see variant below).

1. Rollout¹ 10/5 8/5 eq:-0.170
Player: 45.46% (G:14.64% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 54.54% (G:15.96% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.182..-0.159) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.256 (-0.086)
Player: 42.73% (G:10.06% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 57.27% (G:11.88% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.267..-0.245) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BBa-BbB-C--Ba--b-cbbBb--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.464
Player: 37.23% (G:6.39% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 62.77% (G:10.23% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.471..-0.457) - [83.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/5 8/5 eq:-0.470 (-0.006)
Player: 38.26% (G:9.90% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 61.74% (G:16.66% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.478..-0.461) - [16.6%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)