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  • 5pt problems never get old 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 18 09:32:41 2023
    XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Benjamin Friesen@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Jan 18 12:37:43 2023
    On Wednesday, January 18, 2023 at 9:32:43 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Our blot in the opp's outfield = hit two. (though where it is now it is probably the least likely to need the double hitting defense with the duplication of twos) Lift it, make the 5pt.

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jan 18 16:52:17 2023
    On 1/18/2023 9:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  X        O    |   | O  O        X    |
     | X           O    |   | O  O             |
     |             O    |   | O  O             |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O        X  X    |   | X     X          |
     | O        X  X    |   | X     X     O  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 135  O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41


    Hit two? A 41 played 6/2*/1* is a standard opening reply, but here X is
    ahead in the race with a checker escaped.

    Is the safe play (14/9) better than making the five? Safe v bold
    criteria point to safe, so maybe.

    But since I'm not sure, I'll make the five point here.



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jan 20 08:45:52 2023
    XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    This time, my variant was the same as Stick's. The two plays are
    very close at DMP, but the double hit is more gammonish. Though
    X doesn't have an advantage in board strength, he does have 11
    checkers in the zone ready to attack.

    Magriel's criteria suggest a safe play, but making the 5pt isn't
    really safe. In the variant, making the 5pt is safer.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1* eq:+0.294
    Player: 55.64% (G:24.16% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 44.36% (G:14.10% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.281..+0.307) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/5 eq:+0.224 (-0.070)
    Player: 56.02% (G:20.16% B:1.10%)
    Opponent: 43.98% (G:15.66% B:0.91%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.210..+0.238) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cC---c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 134 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    1. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/5 eq:+0.369
    Player: 59.02% (G:19.40% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 40.98% (G:12.10% B:0.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.362..+0.375) - [99.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1* eq:+0.355 (-0.014)
    Player: 57.05% (G:23.64% B:0.59%)
    Opponent: 42.95% (G:12.66% B:0.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.348..+0.362) - [0.3%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)