XGID=----ADBbCB-aaBa---bbbb-bA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/11/2023 8:53 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----ADBbCB-aaBa---bbbb-bA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O           O |   | O  O  O     O  X |
 | X              O |   | O  O  O     O    |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |    X             |
 |             X    |   |    X             |
 |          X  X  O |   | X  X             |
 | O  O     X  X  O |   | X  X  X          |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 128  O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

None? 24/22 5/4 may well be the bot play.

Hitting twice is always worth a serious look.

But hitting while making the rack is too tempting to give up.

Not at all sure, but 13/11 5/4 for me.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, January 11, 2023 at 8:53:06 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=----ADBbCB-aaBa---bbbb-bA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

The variant should be moving the checker on the opp's 11pt to his 18pt.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----ADBbCB-aaBa---bbbb-bA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

I had originally prepared only one variant for this position,
but Stick's variant nicely complements mine by illustrating a
different point, so I've rolled out his variant as well.

1. Rollout¹ 13/12* 13/11* eq:-0.368
Player: 40.33% (G:16.22% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 59.67% (G:24.34% B:2.38%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.380..-0.356) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11* 5/4 eq:-0.446 (-0.078)
Player: 37.57% (G:13.47% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 62.43% (G:21.91% B:1.14%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.459..-0.433) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/22 5/4 eq:-0.448 (-0.080)
Player: 38.71% (G:7.46% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 61.29% (G:16.87% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.459..-0.436) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----ADBbCB-aaBa---bbbbAb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 13/11* 5/4 eq:-0.039
Player: 48.38% (G:16.07% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 51.62% (G:19.53% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.049..-0.029) - [82.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/12* 13/11* eq:-0.045 (-0.006)
Player: 48.29% (G:18.27% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 51.71% (G:21.39% B:2.05%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.055..-0.036) - [17.5%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------------
Stick's variant
---------------

XGID=----ADBcCB-aaB----bbbb-bA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X O | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 5/4 eq:-0.225
Player: 44.60% (G:8.20% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 55.40% (G:14.20% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.236..-0.214) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/12* 13/11* eq:-0.274 (-0.049)
Player: 42.11% (G:17.03% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 57.89% (G:22.11% B:1.96%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.290..-0.258) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)