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  • Early 32

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jan 10 09:08:29 2023
    XGID=-a-a-aE-D---dD----bbb--bB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Jan 10 09:25:08 2023
    On Tuesday, January 10, 2023 at 2:08:32 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-a-aE-D---dD----bbb--bB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Sorry for not including any analysis or justification but 8/5*/3* for me.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jan 11 20:49:21 2023
    On 1/10/2023 9:08 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-a-aE-D---dD----bbb--bB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X              O |   | O  O        O  X |
     | X              O |   | O  O        O  X |
     | X                |   |                  |
     | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X  O     O     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 162  O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32


    The normal thing to do in the early game is to fight for the five point,
    and when hitting from the eight, bring one down.

    But O has a strong board. Does that change things? I'm sure it does,
    but I'm not seeing a stronger play. The double hit seems playable as
    does splitting, but I'll go with 13/11 8/5*.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jan 13 10:26:28 2023
    XGID=-a-a-aE-D---dD----bbb--bB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    If X hits then he should hit twice. It reduces return shots a lot
    and the 3pt isn't excessively deep in the board. But O has a better
    board and X's back checkers are getting primed. XG steps up both
    back checkers with 24/22 24/21. For comparison, see the variant,
    where O has her 8pt rather than her bar point.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.353
    Player: 42.86% (G:9.84% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 57.14% (G:20.80% B:0.57%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.367..-0.339) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 5/3* eq:-0.441 (-0.088)
    Player: 40.92% (G:11.74% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 59.08% (G:21.43% B:1.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.457..-0.425) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-a-aE-D---dD---b-bb--bB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    1. Rollout¹ 8/5* 5/3* eq:-0.279
    Player: 44.45% (G:12.50% B:0.69%)
    Opponent: 55.55% (G:20.16% B:1.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.293..-0.264) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.333 (-0.054)
    Player: 43.73% (G:10.36% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 56.27% (G:20.55% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.351..-0.315) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)