XGID=-a-B--D-C-b-cC--Ac-bB-b-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/7/2023 8:54 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-B--D-C-b-cC--Ac-bB-b-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        X  O    |   | O  X     O     O |
 | X           O    |   | O  X     O     O |
 | X           O    |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O     O     X    |   | X        X       |
 | O     O     X    |   | X        X     O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 149  O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1

Maybe it's better to just claim the 16 point, going even in the race and getting the runners semi-escaped while O still has a checker on the ace?

But I'm attracted to the four point because, well, it's the four point.

After making the four point I'll make the 16 - the straggler is pretty
safe on the 20 point since O may be reluctant to hit loose and there
aren't many non-loose hits. The blot on the 16 looks pretty vulnerable
with a double shot aimed at it, so I'll cover it.

20/16 6/4(2)

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-B--D-C-b-cC--Ac-bB-b-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

I tried switching points here, but XG hates that. See the variants,
where XG thinks that switching points is a more viable strategy.

1. Rollout¹ 16/14 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.127
Player: 52.18% (G:15.60% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 47.82% (G:9.79% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.113..+0.140) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4(2) eq:+0.046 (-0.081)
Player: 50.54% (G:14.16% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 49.46% (G:10.66% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.033..+0.059) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) eq:+0.030 (-0.096)
Player: 49.30% (G:16.21% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 50.70% (G:10.69% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.019..+0.042) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a-B--D-C-b-cC--Ac-bbB--b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 16/14 8/4 6/4 eq:-0.152
Player: 45.43% (G:11.95% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 54.57% (G:10.91% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.159..-0.146) - [90.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) eq:-0.158 (-0.006)
Player: 45.03% (G:13.70% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 54.97% (G:12.19% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.164..-0.152) - [9.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4(2) eq:-0.198 (-0.045)
Player: 44.68% (G:11.47% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 55.32% (G:12.42% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.204..-0.191) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 8/4 6/4(2) eq:-0.234 (-0.082)
Player: 43.42% (G:11.02% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 56.58% (G:11.46% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.245..-0.223) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a-B--D-C-b-cC--Ac-cB-b-a-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 16/14 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.277
Player: 55.39% (G:17.32% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 44.61% (G:7.78% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.268..+0.285) - [94.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) eq:+0.265 (-0.012)
Player: 54.44% (G:20.32% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 45.56% (G:9.30% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.254..+0.276) - [4.8%]

3. Rollout² 13/11 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.254 (-0.022)
Player: 54.96% (G:18.25% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 45.04% (G:9.23% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.241..+0.267) - [0.2%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)