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  • Blitz versus prime cube action 3

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jan 3 08:39:13 2023
    XGID=a-DB-CC--a---A--AcbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O X |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Jan 3 16:10:51 2023
    On 1/3/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-DB-CC--a---A--AcbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        X  O  O |   | O  O  O  X       |
     |             O  O |   | O  O  O          |
     |             O    |   | O     O          |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |             X    |
     |                  |   | X  X        X    | +---+
     |                  |   | X  X     X  X    | | 2 |
     |          O       |   | X  X     X  X    | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 98  O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action


    Like the last two problems in this series, X has a bunch of market
    losers that make me want to ship it. And enough difficulty springing
    the runner that I don't think it's TG.

    X has more time to shake a six than the last problem and a better board
    so I'll go with pass here. Not sure about the take decision.

    RD/P.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jan 5 08:25:00 2023
    XGID=a-DB-CC--a---A--AcbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O X |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    It's possible that if I had fully absorbed the lessons of the
    position "Blitz versus prime cube action 2" before I faced the
    above position, I might have assessed it more accurately.
    Comparing the two positions, O is better off in several ways.
    She has only one checker on the bar and has no dead checkers
    on her 1pt. On the other hand, X's structure is better too,
    with only two semi-dead checkers on the 2pt, and plenty of
    timing.

    The rollout indicates a RD/P, but a borderline take/pass in
    the variant where one of the spares on the 2pt is moved to
    the 3pt.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 65.69% (G:27.98% B:0.37%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.31% (G:6.30% B:0.33%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.28% (G:27.48% B:0.38%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.72% (G:6.31% B:0.31%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.747 (-0.090)
    Redouble/Take: +0.837
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.163)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.739..+0.755)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.823..+0.851)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-CC-CC--a---A--AcbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O O X |
    | O O | | O O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 99 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:30.64% B:0.40%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:5.77% B:0.29%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.19% (G:30.88% B:0.40%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.81% (G:5.86% B:0.31%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.812 (-0.188)
    Redouble/Take: +1.008 (+0.008)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.805..+0.819)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.996..+1.020)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)