XGID=-a-A-cD-E--BaB---a-cbbb-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X O |
| X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

You're once. Twice. Three times a moron.
But they love you. Oh how, they love you.

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/20/2021 10:10 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-A-cD-E--BaB---a-cbbb-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O     X |
 | X                |   | O  O  O  O       |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |             X    |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X                |  |             X    |   | X  O             |  |    X        X    |   | X  O             |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  O     X     O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 139  O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

1) Seems to me that unstacking the eight point while making the bar is
more thematic than hitting a second checker.

2) And with our runner stuck behind a four prime we need to step up to
the edge while she's occupied getting off the roof.

3) There's probably some consideration about her making a second anchor
which might favor hitting twice, but I'm uncertain about that.

I'll just hit, make the seven point, and step up with the runner. The
twelve point is of limited utility.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/25/2021 3:10 PM, ah...Clem wrote:

1) Seems to me that unstacking the eight point while making the bar is
more thematic than hitting a second checker.

2) And with our runner stuck behind a four prime we need to step up to
the edge while she's occupied getting off the roof.

3) There's probably some consideration about her making a second anchor
which might favor hitting twice, but I'm uncertain about that.

I'll just hit, make the seven point, and step up with the runner. The
twelve point is of limited utility.

XG agrees with your point #1, but one should be viewing O's four points
not as a four-prime to be leaped, but as a four-point board to be feared
(or at least, feared enough not to leave four blots lying around the
board). I was only going to post bot info for two plays, but since you suggested a third play, I've included it as well.

XGID=-a-A-cD-E--BaB---a-cbbb-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X O |
| X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 13/12*(2) 8/7(2) eq:-0.228
Player: 47.33% (G:10.37% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 52.67% (G:21.43% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.247..-0.210) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/12*(2) 3/1* eq:-0.318 (-0.090)
Player: 45.25% (G:9.51% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 54.75% (G:21.81% B:0.92%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.334..-0.303) - [0.0%]

3. XG Roller++ 24/23 13/12* 8/7(2) eq:-0.643 (-0.415)
Player: 39.75% (G:8.94% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 60.25% (G:31.31% B:2.87%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a---DaC---eD-A-c-e-B--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 181 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/14/2021 12:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a---DaC---eD-A-c-e-B--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     X     O    |   | O     X        X |
 | X           O    |   | O     X          |
 | X           O    |   | O                |  | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X  O |   | X           O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 181  O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

I whack two since O has no board and X is way behind in the race. X also
has an advanced anchor so return hits are not very costly.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, November 15, 2021 at 12:55:15 PM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:

On 11/14/2021 12:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a---DaC---eD-A-c-e-B--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 181 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

I whack two since O has no board and X is way behind in the race. X also
has an advanced anchor so return hits are not very costly.

Are you trying to blitz here? Are you hitting the second checker in order to keep the opponent from doing something otherwise significant? (usually on his side of the board, like cover a blot or attack himself)

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a---DaC---eD-A-c-e-B--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 181 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Hitting with the 6 is pretty clear, but the question is whether
X has a better 5 to play. X doesn't have enough material in the
zone (8 checkers) to carry out an effective blitz, so 7/2* is not
a particularly attractive game plan, and the most obvious
alternative 15/10 gives O about the same number of return shots
(15 versus 13, I think).

I've included a variant where the top two plays roll out to about
the same equity. In the variant, the alternative to hitting twice
is to play 13/8, which isn't as useful as 15/10, and also there is
an extra checker in the zone for attacking purposes.

1. Rollout¹ 15/10 13/7* eq:+0.057
Player: 51.09% (G:14.97% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 48.91% (G:12.73% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.041..+0.073) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7* eq:+0.010 (-0.047)
Player: 50.00% (G:13.98% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 50.00% (G:13.25% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.005..+0.026) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/2* eq:-0.022 (-0.079)
Player: 49.06% (G:14.58% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 50.94% (G:13.33% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.039..-0.005) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/15 13/8 eq:-0.086 (-0.142)
Player: 48.22% (G:11.39% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 51.78% (G:13.50% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.099..-0.072) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a---EaC---eD---c-e-B--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 172 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 7/2* eq:+0.071
Player: 50.65% (G:15.83% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 49.35% (G:11.43% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.055..+0.087) - [54.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7* eq:+0.069 (-0.001)
Player: 50.68% (G:15.44% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 49.32% (G:11.59% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.052..+0.086) - [45.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:+0.018 (-0.053)
Player: 49.91% (G:10.55% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 50.09% (G:7.97% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.007..+0.030) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a---E-CA-abCA--acb-cB-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a---E-CA-abCA--acb-cB-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

Hitting twice almost equalizes the pip count, but leaving five blots
around the board when we're outboarded is a bit reckless, even when
O temporarily has two checkers on the bar. It would still be worth
considering if there were no good alternative, but 13/11* 14/9 cleans
up nicely and makes a good point. (Compare with the variant below.)

1. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/11* eq:+0.137
Player: 53.59% (G:14.74% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 46.41% (G:14.21% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.124..+0.151) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/17* 13/11* eq:+0.023 (-0.114)
Player: 52.71% (G:14.36% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 47.29% (G:22.29% B:1.66%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.009..+0.038) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a---E-C-AabCA--acb-cB-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 161 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 22/17* 13/11* eq:-0.006
Player: 52.05% (G:14.37% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 47.95% (G:22.77% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.020..+0.008) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/11* eq:-0.061 (-0.055)
Player: 49.51% (G:13.28% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 50.49% (G:18.90% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.075..-0.046) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-CaC-BB--cB-b-c-cbB--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-CaC-BB--cB-b-c-cbB--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

X has ten checkers in the zone, which is often enough to justify a blitz attempt. However, X has only a two-point board, and O's forward position
has no weaknesses, so it's not that easy for the blitz to succeed. Also,
X has a strong alternative play of advancing his anchor to O's bar
point.

See the variant for a position where attacking is a more viable plan.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq:-0.087
Player: 48.00% (G:10.60% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 52.00% (G:13.01% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.100..-0.075) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 8/2* eq:-0.229 (-0.142)
Player: 43.41% (G:16.59% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 56.59% (G:16.85% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.248..-0.211) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBCaC-B---cB-b-c-cbB--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 8/5* 8/2* eq:+0.087
Player: 48.71% (G:24.36% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 51.29% (G:14.51% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.077..+0.097) - [99.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq:+0.070 (-0.017)
Player: 51.48% (G:15.38% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 48.52% (G:12.96% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.060..+0.079) - [0.8%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)