XGID=bBBABBB-----d-b-Ac-dB--A--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O X X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 172 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/29/2022 9:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=bBBABBB-----d-b-Ac-dB--A--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |    O     X  O    |   | O  X        X    | +---+
 |    O        O    |   | O  X             | | 2 |
 |             O    |   | O                | +---+
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 | O                | O |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X  X  X     X  X |
 | O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 118  O: 172 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

Point > hit > build > escape says play 15/7. So, I'll do that, fully
expecting QF to say it's not the bot play.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=bBBABBB-----d-b-Ac-dB--A--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O X X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 172 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

When there's no danger that our back checkers will get stuck, we
usually prioritize bringing builders into the zone over escaping
the back checkers. However, in this position, 16/7 creates enough inflexibility (visualize, for example, what happens if X rolls 33
or 44 next) that XG favors 20/11, which is a balance between
escaping and building.

See also the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+1.223
Player: 82.03% (G:69.30% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 17.97% (G:3.83% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+1.215..+1.232) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16 20/15 eq:+1.194 (-0.030)
Player: 81.54% (G:67.42% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 18.46% (G:3.84% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+1.185..+1.202) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/7 eq:+1.143 (-0.080)
Player: 79.95% (G:66.96% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 20.05% (G:4.10% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+1.134..+1.153) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bBBABBB-----d-b-Ac-dAA-A--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O X X X | +---+
| O O | | O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 172 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 16/7 eq:+1.242
Player: 82.23% (G:71.13% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 17.77% (G:3.83% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+1.233..+1.251) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+1.221 (-0.021)
Player: 81.86% (G:69.31% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 18.14% (G:3.66% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+1.212..+1.229) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)