XGID=aBBB-CB--A-bb-A--bBbc--c--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, December 28, 2022 at 3:24:05 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBB-CB--A-bb-A--bBbc--c--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

With our opponent's porous board, we don't have anything to be scared of.
I think that it's important to close out the opponent quickly to get decent gammon chances.
Being hit isn't what we want but our 18 point anchor will help in this eventuality.
So I'll slot while keeping the 5 point board and max the cover numbers.
So what's my play then?
What do you mean "What's my play then?"
I just told you!!!!
I _said_ "I'll slot while keeping the 5 point board and max the cover numbers."
What part of the phrase "max the cover numbers" don't you understand?

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/28/2022 10:24 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBB-CB--A-bb-A--bBbc--c--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |    X        O  X |   | O  O        O    | +---+
 |             O  X |   | O  O        O    | | 2 |
 |                  |   |    O        O    | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |    X             |
 | O  O             |   | X  X     X  X  X |
 | O  O     X       |   | X  X     X  X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 98  O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

I don't think slotting the four point is the right idea, but won't be
surprised if it's the bot play. Escaping the runners while she is on
the bar is worth a look, but I'll maximize my chances to make the four
point with 14/10 9/8. Seems more productive than simply making the nine.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aBBB-CB--A-bb-A--bBbc--c--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

Slotting is *not* the DMP play. X has the game mostly in hand, and
if winning the game were the only goal, then slotting would be taking
an unnecessary risk. However, according to the rollout below, slotting
wins enough extra gammons to come out on top.

1. Rollout¹ 14/10 5/4 eq:+1.024
Player: 79.32% (G:57.22% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 20.68% (G:5.50% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.017..+1.030) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/9 eq:+0.975 (-0.049)
Player: 81.18% (G:45.09% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 18.82% (G:2.67% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.968..+0.981) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/10 9/8 eq:+0.974 (-0.049)
Player: 80.35% (G:48.34% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 19.65% (G:3.30% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.968..+0.981) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 18/14 9/8 eq:+0.933 (-0.091)
Player: 80.37% (G:43.81% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 19.63% (G:3.60% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.925..+0.940) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
DMP
---

XGID=aBBB-CB--A-bb-A--bBbc--c--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 128 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 14/9 eq:+0.622
Player: 81.08% (G:43.66% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 18.92% (G:2.14% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.618..+0.625) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/14 9/8

On Friday, December 30, 2022 at 1:44:07 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBB-CB--A-bb-A--bBbc--c--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41
Slotting is *not* the DMP play. X has the game mostly in hand,

Well, no. The opponent has around 20% winning chances.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/30/2022 9:55 AM, [email protected] wrote:

On Friday, December 30, 2022 at 1:44:07 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

Slotting is *not* the DMP play. X has the game mostly in hand,

Well, no. The opponent has around 20% winning chances.

I consider that having the game mostly in hand.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)