XGID=--B-bBC-C---cCa---bdc--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 1:24:04 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--B-bBC-C---cCa---bdc--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

For the sake of intellectual honesty, I have to go with what I would surely play OTB
which is to make the bar point. But such a pedestrian play seems most unlikely to
be correct.
Look out for a "Trickster Tim" special which neither runs nor makes the bar point but
does something else entirely -- like provide free cans of salt and vinegar Pringles.

Paul Epstein

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 1:24:04 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--B-bBC-C---cCa---bdc--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

I think that we can assume that making our bar point is not the top play, otherwise the position would hardly be posted.
However, I would make it without thinking to much OtB.
So, we are encouraged to look around for alternatives...

Comparing bar pt with 24/17:
The largest swing is after opp's 21 in favour of 24/17. There is less discrimination on the other rolls.

Comparing 24/17 with 23/16
There are significant swings on opp's 62, 41 & 64 in favour of 24/17. There is less discrimination on the other rolls.

After all that, 24/17 gets my vote.
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--B-bBC-C---cCa---bdc--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

The bar point has diminished value when the opponent has an advanced
anchor. On the other hand, X's back checkers are starting to get a
bit hemmed in. These factors point to running. Also note that if X
plays 13/7 8/7, then he has no spare checkers on his outfield points;
this is what Falafel called an "Island" and is an indicator of poor flexibility.

In the variant, I have pushed O's anchor back a pip, and the rollout
indicates a dead heat.

1. Rollout¹ 24/17 eq:-0.326
Player: 43.62% (G:8.61% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 56.38% (G:19.34% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.340..-0.312) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.396 (-0.070)
Player: 41.54% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 58.46% (G:17.86% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.409..-0.383) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/16 eq:-0.410 (-0.084)
Player: 41.04% (G:8.35% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 58.96% (G:18.12% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.422..-0.398) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 23/17 6/5 eq:-0.423 (-0.098)
Player: 40.89% (G:8.03% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 59.11% (G:18.84% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.435..-0.411) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--Bb-BC-C---cCa---bdc--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.208
Player: 45.71% (G:11.44% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:17.48% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.214..-0.201) - [50.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/17 eq:-0.208
Player: 46.25% (G:10.74% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 53.75% (G:19.43% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.215..-0.202) - [49.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)