XGID=-aBBCBC----ac--a--Bbc-bb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 1:54:11 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBBCBC----ac--a--Bbc-bb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

D/T for me.
I started quite a long post to justify that, but I've somehow lost it,
and I'm too frustrated to try to remember what I said.

Seems clear to me, but I'm often wrong about things that seem clear.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBBCBC----ac--a--Bbc-bb-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This position actually arose in a match, with X trailing 7a5a.
I was O and I took, and I was surprised that XG thought it was
a pass. The money-game rollout does indeed say that it's a clear
take, but the score makes a big difference. While O has good
winning chances, the gammon losses count more heavily ATS.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.64% (G:35.55% B:1.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.36% (G:9.01% B:0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.78% (G:35.27% B:1.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.22% (G:9.08% B:0.30%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.621 (-0.252)
Double/Take: +0.873
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.127)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.610..+0.631)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.858..+0.888)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

----
7a5a
----

XGID=-aBBCBC----ac--a--Bbc-bb-A:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 124 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.62% (G:35.43% B:1.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.38% (G:8.78% B:0.32%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.70% (G:35.42% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.30% (G:8.86% B:0.38%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.723 (-0.277)
Double/Take: +1.105 (+0.105)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.711..+0.734)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+1.092..+1.119)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBBB-C-A--bbD-a-bac-b-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/19/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBBB-C-A--bbD-a-bac-b-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     O     O  O |   | O     O     O    |
 | X           O    |   | O     O          |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  | X |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O  O             |   | X     X  X  X    |
 | O  O        X    |   | X     X  X  X  O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 121  O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I count 15 hits from the bar, and although O is favored to enter, the
entering numbers probably lose the market just like the dancing numbers.

So, the requisite number of market losers. What happens if X doesn't
hit? O may make a third homeboard point, or send X back to the bar, or
X may dance. X will still have a race lead with one of O's checkers
stuck behind a prime. So not many bad sequences. Ship it.

Seems like O has to take since there's still a lot of game left.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, July 19, 2023 at 3:37:54 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:

On 7/19/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBBB-C-A--bbD-a-bac-b-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I count 15 hits from the bar ...

Are you using 15 as an abbreviation for 15 trillion?
We hit on the opponent's two point with a 2 or double ones.
That's 12. We then consider the 7s. To avoid double counting,
we add 61 and 34. That's 16 so far.
Now consider 10s, noting that 64 doesn't work.
That's 17. Now consider that we can hit loose on
our own acepoint. We must avoid double counting so add 51 and and 53.
We're now up to 21. Now consider pointing on our acepoint but without double counting. We therefore add 33.
So the correct number of hits from the bar is 22. Do you still want to take?

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, July 19, 2023 at 1:39:44 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aBBB-C-A--bbD-a-bac-b-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I'm Walting this one. I know that Ah...............Clem
has responded but here I sit, conscientiously scrolling his
reply out of sight so that I don't faint with shock at his
extreme brilliance, and am equipped to solve this elegant problem.

D/T for me. I'm more confident in the D than the T. We have three juicy
blots to aim at and a four point board. Hit/dance must be a huge market loser. Ignoring the possibility to attack on our own acepoint, there are 17/36 hits, leading
to a hit/dance probability of 17/81 which is easily large enough for a double.

But can Oppy (Gangnam Style) take?
I would think so. There looks like enough play against our entering blot if we fail
to hit.

D/T I wonder what Ah...........................Clem said?
I'll look now but I won't change the post so it should still be considered Waltish.

As expected, Ah...Clem agrees. But we could well be both wrong.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBBB-C-A--bbD-a-bac-b-a-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This didn't look like a pass to me, but it looks like a big pass
to XG. Warning signs of a pass, for me, include (1) opponent has
at least one my checkers trapped behind a five-prime; (2) I will
barely have a takable ace-point game even if the opponent does not
hit; (3) I am significantly behind in the pip count with very poor
structure. It seems that (3) applies here, although it didn't seem
to me that my structure was so terrible.

I'm slightly surprised that ah...clem did not apply "PRAT" (position
race and threats), as he often does. PRAT would have worked here,
I think.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.18% (G:37.94% B:2.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.82% (G:7.92% B:0.28%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.25% (G:38.82% B:2.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.75% (G:8.04% B:0.33%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.809 (-0.191)
Double/Take: +1.101 (+0.101)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.797..+0.821)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.084..+1.118)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)