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  • Fourth-roll position

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 15 09:36:05 2022
    XGID=aA--a-D-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Dec 15 12:59:30 2022
    On Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 2:36:08 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=aA--a-D-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    For lack of anything more appealing, I'll try a blitz with 8/4* then more wood with 13/7.
    Even if the blitz stalls we may prevent O from making a good anchor.
    --
    BD

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Dec 15 20:16:39 2022
    On 12/15/2022 9:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aA--a-D-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X     O        X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 162  O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    O is on the bar, so why not make a second home board point and increase
    the dancing rolls by a factor of four?

    Make the deuce point.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 17 08:28:26 2022
    XGID=aA--a-D-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    For Stick's benefit, let's mention the Nactation: 51S-41K-64<-64.

    No play is particularly attractive here. Like ah...clem, I tried
    8/2 6/2. The trouble is that unless O dances, 8/2 6/2 doesn't
    accomplish too much; it's an attacking play, but O should be able
    to enter easily, possibly anchoring or hitting in the process, and
    X has only 8 checkers in the zone. If X is going to attack, then
    hitting 8/4* and bringing another checker into the zone is the way
    to go. I didn't like this play because it creates two blots in
    my board, but at least it stops O from anchoring immediately, and
    if things go well, it could turn into a blitz.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/4* eq:-0.092
    Player: 47.64% (G:15.46% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 52.36% (G:15.99% B:1.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.106..-0.078) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/7 eq:-0.143 (-0.051)
    Player: 46.73% (G:12.17% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 53.27% (G:14.46% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.158..-0.128) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/4* eq:-0.152 (-0.060)
    Player: 46.66% (G:12.52% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 53.34% (G:16.19% B:0.79%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.167..-0.136) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.176 (-0.084)
    Player: 45.60% (G:14.19% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 54.40% (G:15.99% B:0.80%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.192..-0.160) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.213 (-0.121)
    Player: 45.58% (G:10.39% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 54.42% (G:15.45% B:0.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.227..-0.198) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)