XGID=--a-bCDB-a--dC--Ab-c-bAA--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 175 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow <[email protected]> writes:

XGID=--a-bCDB-a--dC--Ab-c-bAA--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 175 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

PoH, please. Saving the blot seems lame, and after the hit there are
chances to pick up a second blot, remake the bar point or make the 16
point.

Best regards

Axel

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/14/2022 8:54 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a-bCDB-a--dC--Ab-c-bAA--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        X  O    |   | O     O  X  X    |
 | X           O    |   | O     O          |
 | X                |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X                |
 | O                |   | X  X             |
 | O              X |   | X  X  O          |
 | O        O     X |   | X  X  O     O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 153  O: 175 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

Often keeping the solid prime, even a small one, in front of the runners
is better than breaking it to hit. Is that true here? Not sure.

But I'll keep the eight point, safety the blot on the 16, and step up to
the bar point with the straggler. X is ahead in the race, so play to race.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

"ah....Clem" <[email protected]> writes:

Often keeping the solid prime, even a small one, in front of the
runners is better than breaking it to hit.

Agreed, and I often use it as guidance when pondering an open hit. But
here it is not an open hit, but rather a point on head, and for that
matter an inner point. For me, this trumps the prime considerations. And
we do not want to prime the opponent with 20 pips ahead. We rather want
to escape the back checkers safely, which will not be easy, and thus the additional tempo gained by the hit (and perhaps additional further
dancing by the opponent) will help quite a bit.

Best regards

Axel

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-bCDB-a--dC--Ab-c-bAA--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 175 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

PoH is less effective if the opponent already has an advanced anchor.
But it has to be weighed against the alternative. The alternative of
23/18 16/13 leaves X's stragglers fairly vulnerable to attack, and of
course does not gain the tempo that PoH gains. According to the rollout
below, 23/18 16/13 is a whopper. But see also the variant below, where
the rollout says that top two plays are practically tied.

1. Rollout¹ 7/2* 5/2 eq:+0.232
Player: 53.68% (G:20.82% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 46.32% (G:12.17% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.214..+0.250) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/18 16/13 eq:+0.120 (-0.112)
Player: 52.43% (G:16.73% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 47.57% (G:13.26% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.104..+0.136) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a-bCDB-a--dC--Ab-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 175 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 7/2* 5/2 eq:+0.145
Player: 52.27% (G:19.90% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 47.73% (G:13.06% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.134..+0.157) - [78.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/18 16/13 eq:+0.139 (-0.006)
Player: 52.80% (G:16.51% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 47.20% (G:12.50% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.127..+0.150) - [21.9%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-a-FBB---bE--ab-d-bb---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/22/2023 8:44 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--a-a-FBB---bE--ab-d-bb---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O     O  O       |
 | X           O    |   | O     O  O       |
 | X                |   | O                |  | X                |   | O                |  | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | 6                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X     O     O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 131  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

OTB, I'd probably just make the four point without much thought.

But all the safe v bold criteria point to safe, so I'll just play 13/7.

Save v bold has been a poor proxy for these problems of late, but I'll
stick with it.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-a-FBB---bE--ab-d-bb---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

Safe vs. bold does point to safe, and that's what the rollout below
recommends. On the other hand, safe vs. bold would say the same about
the variant below, but the rollout there recommends PoH. One key
difference is that in the above position, PoH gives O a good 6 from
the bar, which is not true of the variant. But I think this type of
judgment call is difficult to make OTB.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.370
Player: 60.45% (G:4.78% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 39.55% (G:4.51% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.361..+0.380) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 eq:+0.307 (-0.064)
Player: 58.73% (G:9.74% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 41.27% (G:10.29% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.295..+0.318) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aa-FBB---bE--ab-d-bb---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 eq:+0.342
Player: 59.78% (G:8.94% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 40.22% (G:8.79% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.338..+0.347) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.303 (-0.040)
Player: 58.43% (G:3.96% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 41.57% (G:3.24% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.298..+0.307) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)