XGID=----BbC-C--BbC---f-eA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| 6 | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/13/2022 9:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----BbC-C--BbC---f-eA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  X           X |
 | X           O    |   | O                |
 | X           O    |   | O                |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |             6    |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  O  X          |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  O  X          |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 155  O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

What's the game plan here? Is X far enough ahead in the race that he
wants to just bring the runners around, or should he anchor up?

Well, race is about even, so making the anchor seems thematic. And after
24/20, 8/2 is the only way to play the six.

Make the deuce point or the bar point? Either might be right, but I'll
make the GP here.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----BbC-C--BbC---f-eA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| 6 | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

The subject line is a bit of a red herring, since 8/2 is not a
particularly tempting candidate play here anyway.

Making the Golden Point is normally a strong play in the early game,
since it provides insurance against being attacked or primed. Here,
though, X can take advantage of O's poor structure; she is stacked
and stripped, with no board. If X plays 20/10, then there's a good
chance that O will have to leave shots and blots next turn, whereas
playing 24/20 allows O to dump safely behind X's anchor. True,
20/10 allows O to hit with 5's, but unless O rolls 55, that will
come at the expense of her anchor, which is O's only asset in this
position.

See however the variant, in which O is only slightly more flexible.

1. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:+0.114
Player: 53.66% (G:8.74% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 46.34% (G:10.28% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.107..+0.120) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/7 eq:+0.065 (-0.049)
Player: 52.81% (G:8.47% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 47.19% (G:11.73% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.059..+0.071) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/7 eq:+0.042 (-0.071)
Player: 51.08% (G:5.84% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 48.92% (G:5.99% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.037..+0.048) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----BbC-C--BcC---e-eA---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/7 eq:+0.082
Player: 52.40% (G:5.98% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 47.60% (G:5.78% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.074..+0.090) - [51.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:+0.082
Player: 52.96% (G:8.48% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 47.04% (G:10.29% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.073..+0.091) - [48.2%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)