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  • Anchors away 5

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 9 09:15:28 2022
    I'm going to call this Anchors away 5 even though it's only the
    fourth distinct position I've posted in this series, just to
    avoid further Subject line confusion.

    XGID=-A-b--E-C-B-dBa--b-cabB---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Dec 10 10:30:00 2022
    On Friday, December 9, 2022 at 2:15:29 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    I'm going to call this Anchors away 5 even though it's only the
    fourth distinct position I've posted in this series, just to
    avoid further Subject line confusion.

    XGID=-A-b--E-C-B-dBa--b-cabB---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    ---
    Tim Chow

    22/20* 13/10
    We are not favourites but we must make a move now, otherwise we are asking to be primed in on opp's 3pt.
    With our race lead we do not have the timing to sit on the anchor.
    We have some protection from duplication.
    --
    BD

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 11 09:44:26 2022
    XGID=-A-b--E-C-B-dBa--b-cabB---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    I like BlueDice's analysis. Of course there's also the fact that the alternative play of 6/1 is not particularly attractive.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/20* 13/10 eq:-0.277
    Player: 43.35% (G:14.19% B:0.62%)
    Opponent: 56.65% (G:18.17% B:1.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.290..-0.263) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout² 6/1 eq:-0.350 (-0.073)
    Player: 41.10% (G:10.17% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 58.90% (G:15.59% B:0.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.364..-0.335) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Dec 11 20:44:41 2022
    On 12/9/2022 9:15 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    I'm going to call this Anchors away 5 even though it's only the
    fourth distinct position I've posted in this series, just to
    avoid further Subject line confusion.

    XGID=-A-b--E-C-B-dBa--b-cabB---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O        O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
     | X           O    |   | O     O  X       |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O     X     X    |   | X        O       |
     | O     X     X    |   | X        O     X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 145  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    If X hits, where to play the three? 13/10, abandoning the midpoint?
    Might be the bot move, but modern play advocates that if you have
    slotted the ace point might as well go ahead and make it. Well, some of
    the time anyway.

    So I'll just make a second home board point and try to depend on being
    ahead in the race to bring this one home.

    6/1.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)