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  • Action double?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 4 09:29:14 2022
    XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Dec 4 22:49:39 2022
    On 12/4/2022 9:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        O  O  O |   | O     X        X |
     | X        O  O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O           X  O |   | X  X  X          |
     | O           X  O |   | X  X  X  O  X    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 131  O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Mentally running through all the rolls, I'm not seeing any roll that's
    not pretty devastating for O (well, 52, 53 and maybe 44). And since
    almost everything is a market loser, has the market already been lost?

    Looks like a cash to me, but might be TG.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 6 07:59:25 2022
    XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I thought this was a take but I underestimated the gammon risk.
    There are a ton of hitting rolls that send a second checker back
    to face X's strong board. But see also the variant below.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.06% (G:40.57% B:1.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.94% (G:6.75% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.08% (G:40.90% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.92% (G:6.92% B:0.37%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.861 (-0.139)
    Double/Take: +1.157 (+0.157)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.848..+0.874)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+1.135..+1.178)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--abbe-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:36.32% B:0.97%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:7.21% B:0.35%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 65.80% (G:36.76% B:1.03%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.20% (G:7.33% B:0.30%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.757 (-0.197)
    Double/Take: +0.954
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.046)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.741..+0.773)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.934..+0.975)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Tue Dec 6 05:08:04 2022
    On Monday, December 5, 2022 at 3:49:41 AM UTC, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 12/4/2022 9:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Mentally running through all the rolls, I'm not seeing any roll that's
    not pretty devastating for O (well, 52, 53 and maybe 44). And since
    almost everything is a market loser, has the market already been lost?

    Looks like a cash to me, but might be TG.

    This is a great way of thinking about it -- I like this analysis.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)